{"id":39973,"date":"2022-11-18T16:48:14","date_gmt":"2022-11-18T16:48:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prod.fabricegrinda.com\/%e5%86%ac%e5%a4%a9%e4%be%86%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%81\/"},"modified":"2024-05-23T09:05:35","modified_gmt":"2024-05-23T09:05:35","slug":"%e5%86%ac%e5%a4%a9%e4%be%86%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/grinda.org\/zh-hant\/%e5%86%ac%e5%a4%a9%e4%be%86%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%81\/","title":{"rendered":"\u51ac\u5929\u4f86\u4e86\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u6211\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u5b8f\u89c0\u8003\u616e\u3002 \u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c0\u52dd\u904e\u5fae\u89c0\u3002 \u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u6642\u523b\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\u90fd\u8207\u7e41\u69ae\u6642\u523b\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684 1 \u76f8\u95dc\u3002 \u76e1\u8077\u8abf\u67e5\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u5728\u5916\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7121\u6cd5\u5c07\u51fa\u8272\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u8207\u820a\u516c\u53f8\u5340\u5206\u958b\u4f86\u3002 \u540c\u6a23\uff0c\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u856d\u689d\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\u90fd\u8207\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684 1 \u76f8\u95dc\u3002 \u5e02\u5834\u628a\u5b30\u5152\u548c\u6d17\u6fa1\u6c34\u4e00\u8d77\u6254\u6389\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u768418\u500b\u6708\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e00\u76f4\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\u3002 2021\u5e742\u6708\uff0c\u6211\u5728 <a href=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/welcome-to-the-everything-bubble\/\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/welcome-to-the-everything-bubble\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u300a\u6b61\u8fce\u4f86\u5230\u4e00\u5207\u6ce1\u6cab<\/a> \u300b\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8ca0\u5be6\u969b\u5229\u7387\u548c\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u64f4\u5f35\u6027\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u6b63\u5728\u52a9\u9577\u6240\u6709\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u662f\u7a4d\u6975\u62cb\u552e\u9ad8\u4f30\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6642\u5019\u4e86\u3002 \u4eca\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u6211\u5728 <a href=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/the-great-unknown\/\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/the-great-unknown\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u300a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u672a\u77e5<\/a>\u300b\u4e00\u66f8\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u56b4\u91cd\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002 \u81ea\u90a3\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u98a8\u96aa\u53ea\u589e\u4e0d\u6e1b\u3002<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:20%\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-tiktok wp-block-embed-tiktok\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"tiktok-embed\" cite=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@20vc_tok\/video\/7095411174233099526\" data-video-id=\"7095411174233099526\" data-embed-from=\"oembed\" style=\"max-width:605px; min-width:325px;\"> <section> <a target=\"_blank\" title=\"@20vc_tok\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@20vc_tok?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">@20vc_tok<\/a> <p><a title=\"1\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/1?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#1<\/a> angel investor in the world <a title=\"fabricegrinda\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/fabricegrinda?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#FabriceGrinda<\/a> explains why <a title=\"recession\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/recession?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#recession<\/a> is so likely <a title=\"2022\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/2022?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#2022<\/a> <a title=\"economy\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/economy?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#economy<\/a> <a title=\"investor\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/investor?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#investor<\/a> <a title=\"investors\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/investors?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#investors<\/a> <a title=\"fjlabs\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/fjlabs?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#FJLabs<\/a> <a title=\"20vc\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/20vc?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#20VC<\/a> <a title=\"harrystebbings\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/harrystebbings?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#HarryStebbings<\/a><\/p> <a target=\"_blank\" title=\"\u266c Violin - Grooving Gecko\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/music\/Violin-6732129806218954753?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">\u266c Violin &#8211; Grooving Gecko<\/a> <\/section> <\/blockquote> <script async src=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/embed.js\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:20%\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<p>\u770b\u8dcc\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u5171\u8b58\u3002 \u50cf\u5f80\u5e38\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u6211\u662f\u9006\u52e2\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u9006\u5411\u89c0\u9ede\u662f\u5171\u8b58\u9084\u4e0d\u5920\u770b\u8dcc\u3002 \u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u90fd\u5728\u70ba2023\u5e74\u7684\u67d0\u7a2e\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u8edf\u8457\u9678\u6216\u6eab\u548c\u8870\u9000\u505a\u6e96\u5099\u3002 \u6211\u5011\u9060\u672a\u9677\u5165\u7d55\u671b\u7684\u5c71\u8c37\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u90fd\u5df2\u55aa\u5931\u3002 \u4efb\u4f55\u4e0d\u5982\u9810\u671f\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u90fd\u6703\u8b93\u5e02\u5834\u6495\u88c2\u3002 \u9019\u767c\u751f\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\uff0c\u7576\u6642CPI\u6578\u64da\u70ba7.7%\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f7.9%\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7576\u4eba\u5011\u8208\u9ad8\u91c7\u70c8\u5730\u8fce\u63a5\u52a0\u606f\u901f\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u6642\u3002 \u8acb\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u589e\u9577\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4ecd\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e8c\u968e\u5c0e\u6578\u70ba\u8ca0\u6578\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u968e\u5c0e\u6578\u4ecd\u70ba\u6b63\u6578\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"597\" height=\"458\" src=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture1-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19257\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u6709\u4e5d\u500b\u56e0\u7d20\u63a8\u52d5\u4e86\u6211\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u60c5\u7dd2\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. <strong>\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u4eba\u5011\u9810\u671f\u7684\u8981\u9ad8\uff0c\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u9593\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u4eba\u5011\u9810\u671f\u7684\u8981\u9577<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u5728 9 \u6708 20 \u65e5\u81f3 21 \u65e5\u7684 FOMC \u6703\u8b70\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u627f\u92b7\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u5c07\u9054\u5230 3.5% \u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u3002 \u76ee\u524d\u70ba 3.75% \u81f3 4%\uff0c\u9810\u8a08 2023 \u5e74\u5c07\u9054\u5230 4.6% \u7684\u5cf0\u503c\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u518d\u6b21\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u4eca\u5e74\u65e9\u4e9b\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u64d4\u5fc3\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u8003\u616e\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc5%\u7684\u5f8c\u679c\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u5011\u6c92\u6709\u8003\u616e\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\u3002 \u9019\u662f\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u4e2d\u5171\u8b58\u4e00\u518d\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u9818\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture2-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19259\" width=\"602\" height=\"380\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u7531\u65bc\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u7136\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u96a8\u8457\u5de5\u4eba\u958b\u59cb\u8981\u6c42\u6839\u64da\u9810\u671f\u7684\u901a\u8139\u4e0a\u5347\u8981\u6c42\u52a0\u85aa\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5728\u6bd4\u4eba\u5011\u9810\u671f\u7684\u66f4\u9577\u7684\u6642\u9593\u5167\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002 \u5982\u679c\u5229\u7387\u6700\u7d42\u9054\u5230 5.5% \u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e26\u5728 2024 \u5e74\u6216\u66f4\u9577\u6642\u9593\u5167\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u6703\u611f\u5230\u9a5a\u8a1d\u3002<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:30%\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Could the Fed raise interest rates to 20%  ??\" width=\"840\" height=\"473\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/tKHgFRamWuE?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:30%\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. <strong>\u5f37\u52e2\u7f8e\u5143\u6b63\u5728\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u88fd\u9020\u4e3b\u6b0a\u50b5\u52d9\u5371\u6a5f<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u5927\u591a\u6578\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u8a08\u50f9\uff0c\u4f46\u7a05\u6536\u4ee5\u7576\u5730\u8ca8\u5e63\u8a08\u50f9\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u7684\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7d93\u5e38\u81ea\u6211\u9020\u6210\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u4f7f\u7f8e\u5143\u5927\u5e45\u8d70\u5f37\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture3-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19261\" width=\"609\" height=\"342\" srcset=\"https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture3-1.png 1430w, https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture3-1-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture3-1-1200x675.png 1200w, https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture3-1-1320x742.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u9019\u4e00\u589e\u9577\u4f7f\u8a31\u591a\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u8655\u65bc\u5c8c\u5c8c\u53ef\u5371\u7684\u5883\u5730\u3002 \u65af\u91cc\u862d\u5361\u5df2\u7d93\u9055\u7d04\u3002 \u8fe6\u7d0d\u548c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u662f\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u9762\u81e8\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. <strong>\u9ad8\u6cb9\u50f9\u5c07\u5c0e\u81f4\u5fb7\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u904e\u53bb\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u7684\u5546\u696d\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u7528\u5ec9\u50f9\u7684\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u88fd\u9020\u6771\u897f\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u4e2d\u570b\u3002 \u9019\u7a2e\u5546\u696d\u6a21\u5f0f\u6b63\u9762\u81e8\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u3002 \u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u95dc\u9589\u5317\u6eaa\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4f7f\u5fb7\u570b\u6c92\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u4f86\u4f9b\u6696\u5176\u4eba\u53e3\u4f75\u70ba\u5176\u4f9d\u8cf4\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u7684\u91cd\u5de5\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u71c3\u6599\u3002 \u914d\u7d66\u548c\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u5c07\u5c0e\u81f4\u5fb7\u570b\u57282023\u5e74\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u6839\u64da\u51ac\u5b63\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u9593\u548c\u56b4\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f30\u8a08GDP\u5c07\u6536\u7e2e0.4%\u81f37.9%\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. <strong>\u65b0\u7684\u6b50\u5143\u5371\u6a5f\u8feb\u5728\u7709\u776b<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u5e0c\u81d8\u57282007-2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u4e4b\u5f8c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6253\u58d3\u4e86\u6b50\u5143\u3002 \u8a31\u591a\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u72c0\u6cc1\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662fPIGS\uff08\u8461\u8404\u7259\u3001\u7fa9\u5927\u5229\u3001\u5e0c\u81d8\u3001\u897f\u73ed\u7259\uff09\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u72c0\u6cc1\u73fe\u5728\u6bd4\u7576\u6642\u8981\u5dee\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture4-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19263\" width=\"607\" height=\"403\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u50b5\u52d9\u6c34\u6e96\u5982\u6b64\u4e4b\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u65bc\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0d\u6703\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u7834\u7522\u3002 \u6700\u5927\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u53ef\u80fd\u4f86\u81ea\u7fa9\u5927\u5229\uff0c\u5176\u50b5\u52d9\u8207GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u76ee\u524d\u8d85\u904e150%\uff0c\u5176\u7d93\u6fdf\u898f\u6a21\u662f\u5e0c\u81d8\u7684\u5341\u500d\u3002 \u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8a72\u570b\u9078\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6975\u53f3\u7ffc\u7684\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u7fa9\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u5728\u6b50\u6d32\u53ef\u80fd\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u5f88\u591a\u53cb\u597d\u7684\u9762\u5b54\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u5fb7\u570b\u6b63\u8655\u65bc\u80fd\u6e90\u5371\u6a5f\u4e4b\u4e2d\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u6211\u61f7\u7591\uff0c\u7576\u5371\u6a5f\u767c\u751f\u6642\uff0c\u6b50\u6d32\u5c07\u4e0d\u60dc\u4e00\u5207\u4ee3\u50f9\u4fdd\u8b77\u6b50\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u500b\u904e\u7a0b\u5c07\u662f\u6975\u5176\u75db\u82e6\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. <strong>\u9280\u884c\u696d\u5371\u6a5f\u5373\u5c07<\/strong>\u4f86\u81e8<\/h3>\n\n<p>\u4eca\u5e74\u65e9\u4e9b\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u9810\u6e2c\u745e\u58eb\u4fe1\u8cb8\uff08Credit Suisse\uff09\u548c\u745e\u9280\uff08UBS\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u9055\u7d04\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u62d6\u57ae\u745e\u58eb\u3002 \u9019\u4e9b\u9280\u884c\u767c\u73fe\u81ea\u5df1\u8655\u65bc\u6700\u8fd1\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u6d89\u53ca\u4e0d\u826f\u8cb8\u6b3e\u7684\u570b\u969b\u5d29\u6f70\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Archegos\u3001Greensil\u3001Luckin Coffee\u7b49\u3002 \u4ee5\u5916\u5e63\u8a08\u50f9\u7684\u8cb8\u6b3e\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u76f8\u7576\u65bc\u745e\u58ebGDP\u7684~400%\u3002 \u64da\u5b98\u65b9\u7d71\u8a08\uff0c\u745e\u58eb\u9280\u884c\u7cfb\u7d71\u8cc7\u7522\u662f ~ 4.7 \u500d GDP\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u5916\u8cc7\u7522\u3002 \u5305\u62ec\u9019\u4e9b\u8868\u660e ~9.5x 10x \u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u66f4\u6e96\u78ba\u3002<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:20%\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-tiktok wp-block-embed-tiktok\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"tiktok-embed\" cite=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@20vc_tok\/video\/7095560238253870342\" data-video-id=\"7095560238253870342\" data-embed-from=\"oembed\" style=\"max-width:605px; min-width:325px;\"> <section> <a target=\"_blank\" title=\"@20vc_tok\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@20vc_tok?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">@20vc_tok<\/a> <p>Could <a title=\"switzerland\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/switzerland?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#Switzerland<\/a> default on their debt? <a title=\"fabricegrinda\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/fabricegrinda?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#FabriceGrinda<\/a> on <a title=\"20vc\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/20vc?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#20VC<\/a> with HarryStebbings. <a title=\"swisseconomy\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/swisseconomy?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#swisseconomy<\/a> <a title=\"creditsuisse\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/creditsuisse?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#creditsuisse<\/a> <a title=\"archegos\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/archegos?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#archegos<\/a> <a title=\"greensill\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/greensill?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#greensill<\/a> <a title=\"iceland\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/iceland?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#iceland<\/a> <a title=\"recession2022\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/recession2022?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#recession2022<\/a> <a title=\"economics\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/economics?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#economics<\/a> <a title=\"venturecapital\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/venturecapital?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#venturecapital<\/a> <a title=\"zurich\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/zurich?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#zurich<\/a> <a title=\"swissbank\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/swissbank?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#swissbank<\/a><\/p> <a target=\"_blank\" title=\"\u266c Suspense, horror, piano and music box - takaya\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/music\/Suspense-horror-piano-and-music-box-6817193198436255745?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">\u266c Suspense, horror, piano and music box &#8211; takaya<\/a> <\/section> <\/blockquote> <script async src=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/embed.js\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:20%\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<p>\u5f9e\u90a3\u6642\u8d77\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u958b\u59cb\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u745e\u58eb\u4fe1\u8cb8\u7684\u75b2\u8edf\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19265\" width=\"620\" height=\"377\" srcset=\"https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture5.png 1143w, https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture5-768x467.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u6b50\u6d32\u9280\u884c\u666e\u904d\u8655\u65bc\u5f31\u52e2\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 \u4ed6\u5011\u64c1\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u52d9\uff0c\u9019\u5c07\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5011\u9762\u81e8 PIGS \u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u91cd\u7d44\u3002 \u4ed6\u5011\u4ee5\u6975\u4f4e\u7684\u5229\u7387\u767c\u653e\u4e86\u62b5\u62bc\u54c1\u5f88\u5c11\u7684\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u906d\u53d7\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u623f\u5730\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u6c92\u6709\u50cf\u7f8e\u570b\u540c\u884c\u90a3\u6a23\u5efa\u7acb\u5927\u91cf\u5132\u5099\u3002 \u5982\u679c\u51fa\u73fe\u5168\u9762\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u4e0d\u96e3\u60f3\u50cf\uff0c\u7576\u9280\u884c\u8a66\u5716\u907f\u514d\u4ea4\u6613\u5c0d\u624b\u98a8\u96aa\u6642\uff0c\u6574\u500b\u9280\u884c\u9ad4\u7cfb\u90fd\u6703\u9677\u5165\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5c0e\u81f4\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6\u3001 <strong>\u623f\u5730\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u5373\u5c07\u4e0b\u8dcc<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u8207\u6240\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002 \u73fe\u5728\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5927\u591a\u6578\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u7522\u90fd\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19266\" width=\"609\" height=\"485\" srcset=\"https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture6.png 863w, https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture6-768x611.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u5728\u904e\u53bb18\u500b\u6708\u4e2d\u5f9e2.5%\u4e0a\u5347\u52307%\uff0c\u4f46\u623f\u5730\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u5c1a\u672a\u8abf\u6574\u3002 \u8ce3\u5bb6\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u4f86\u8abf\u6574\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u9996\u5148\u67af\u7aed\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728\u904e\u53bb7\u500b\u6708\u4e2d\uff0c\u5fb7\u514b\u85a9\u65af\u5dde\u5967\u65af\u4e01\u7b49\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e863%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002 \u5982\u679c\u6211\u5011\u5728\u672a\u4f8624\u500b\u6708\u5167\u770b\u5230\u5168\u570b\u4e0b\u964d15%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u6703\u611f\u5230\u9a5a\u8a1d\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture7.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19267\" width=\"604\" height=\"346\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u6b63\u5728\u5168\u7403\u767c\u751f\u3002 \u7d10\u897f\u862d\u623f\u50f9\u5728\u904e\u53bb11\u500b\u6708\u4e2d\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e8610.9%\u3002 \u9810\u8a08\u745e\u5178\u7684\u623f\u50f9\u5c07\u5f9e\u5cf0\u503c\u4e0b\u8dcc20%\u3002 \u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u548c\u82f1\u570b\u4f3c\u4e4e\u7279\u5225\u8106\u5f31\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5927\u591a\u6578\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u64c1\u6709\u6d6e\u52d5\u5229\u7387\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\uff0c\u9762\u81e8\u5229\u7387\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">7. <strong>\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u548c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u885d\u7a81\u5c07\u4f7f\u7ce7\u98df\u3001\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u548c\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u885d\u7a81\u770b\u4e0d\u5230\u76e1\u982d\u3002 \u5728\u7e7c\u7e8c\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u9452\u65bc\u50f9\u683c\u662f\u7531\u4f9b\u61c9\u9650\u5236\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u9ad8\u9700\u6c42\u9a45\u52d5\u7684\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u6e96\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u7ce7\u98df\u3001\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u548c\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u90fd\u5c07\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u9019\u751a\u81f3\u6c92\u6709\u8003\u616e\u5230\u5982\u679c\u5728\u885d\u7a81\u671f\u9593\u4f7f\u7528\u6230\u8853\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u6703\u767c\u751f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u679c\u5c07\u662f\u96e3\u4ee5\u60f3\u50cf\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">8. <strong>\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u548c\u901a\u8ca8\u7dca\u7e2e\u7684\u529b\u91cf<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u548c\u901a\u8ca8\u7dca\u7e2e\u7684\u63a8\u52d5\u529b\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u4ee5\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u548c\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u88fd\u9020\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u8aac\u660e\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e16\u754c\u53d7\u76ca\u532a\u6dfa\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u9019\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u771f\u7684\u3002 \u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u7121\u80fd\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6e05\u96f6\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u53cd\u6280\u8853\u76e3\u7ba1\u548c\u666e\u904d\u7684\u53cd\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u58d3\u57ae\u4e86\u8a72\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u6c99\u6587\u4e3b\u7fa9\u653f\u7b56\u6b63\u5728\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e2d\u570b\u8207\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u812b\u9264\u548c\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u89e3\u9ad4\u3002 \u5c07\u9019\u4e9b\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u8f49\u79fb\u5230\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u5370\u5c3c\u3001\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u6216\u8fd4\u56de\u5728\u5cb8\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u662f\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u904e\u53bb 30 \u5e74\u6240\u53d7\u76ca\u65bc\u7684\u5c08\u696d\u5316\u548c\u898f\u6a21\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5f9e\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u9762\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u8ecd\u4e8b\u5c08\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u4e94\u5e74\u5167\u5c07\u4e0d\u5177\u5099\u5165\u4fb5\u81fa\u7063\u7684\u5169\u68f2\u80fd\u529b\u3002 \u96d6\u7136\u9019\u628a\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u9054\u6469\u514b\u5229\u65af\u4e4b\u528d\u4ecd\u7136\u61f8\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u7a7a\uff0c\u4f46\u611f\u89ba\u6e05\u7b97\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u9084\u6c92\u6709\u5230\u4f86\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">9. <strong>\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u8f03\u9ad8<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u51b7\u6230\u5f8c\u7684\u5354\u7d04\u6b63\u5728\u74e6\u89e3\u3002 \u6211\u5011\u6b63\u5728\u9032\u5165\u4e00\u5834\u65b0\u7684\u51b7\u6230\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u5834\u51b7\u6230\u4e2d\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u3001\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u3001\u4f0a\u6717\u548c\u671d\u9bae\u5c0d\u5cd9\u3002 \u70cf\u514b\u862d\u885d\u7a81\u4f7f\u9019\u4e00\u52d5\u614b\u8b8a\u5f97\u6e05\u6670\u53ef\u898b\u3002 \u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u6b63\u5728\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u88fd\u9020\u7684\u7121\u4eba\u6a5f\uff0c\u671d\u9bae\u88fd\u9020\u7684\u706b\u70ae\u4f5c\u6230\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7fd2\u5728\u806f\u5408\u570b\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u821e\u81fa\u4e0a\u90fd\u6709\u666e\u4eac\u7684\u652f\u63f4\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u9019\u5834\u65b0\u7684\u51b7\u6230\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u591a\u7a2e\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c0e\u81f4\u53ef\u6015\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff1a  <\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u6838\u96fb\u7ad9\u767c\u751f\u6838\u885d\u7a81\u6216\u9ad2\u5f48\u6216\u4e8b\u6545\u3002  <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u53f0\u7063\u6230\u722d\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u897f\u65b9\u5c0d\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u7684\u7db2\u8def\u653b\u64ca\u4e0d\u65b7\u5347\u7d1a\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5229\u7528\u6280\u8853\u7834\u58de\u897f\u65b9\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u548c\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u9078\u8209\u62d6\u91e3\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p>\u6240\u6709\u9019\u4e9b\u90fd\u4f7f\u4e16\u754c\u8b8a\u5f97\u4e0d\u90a3\u9ebc\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u4fb5\u8755\u4e86\u6cd5\u6cbb\uff0c\u4e26\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u707d\u96e3\u6027\u5de6\u5c3e\u5f8c\u679c\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7d50\u8ad6<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p>\u9019\u4e5d\u500b\u56e0\u7d20\u4e2d\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u500b\u90fd\u8db3\u4ee5\u9020\u6210\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u4ee4\u6211\u64d4\u5fc3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u90fd\u5728\u540c\u6642\u767c\u751f\u548c\u4e0a\u6f14\uff0c\u9019\u8868\u660e2007-2008\u5e74\u5927\u856d\u689d\u7684\u91cd\u6f14\u53ef\u80fd\u5373\u5c07\u5230\u4f86\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u6211\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u623f\u9593\u91cc\u6700\u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u81ea2006\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6211\u5f9e\u672a\u5982\u6b64\u60b2\u89c0\u3002 \u6211\u4ecd\u7136\u5f9e\u6982\u7387\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u4f46\u73fe\u5728\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u56b4\u91cd\u8870\u9000\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u52dd\u904e\u6eab\u548c\u8870\u9000\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u6eab\u548c\u8870\u9000\u53c8\u52dd\u904e\u4efb\u4f55\u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u70ba\u4e86\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u63d0\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u6703\u8b93\u6211\u91cd\u65b0\u8a55\u4f30\u6211\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u6b0a\u8861\u66f4\u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002 \u5982\u679c\u70cf\u514b\u862d\/\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u885d\u7a81\u5f97\u5230\u660e\u78ba\u7d50\u675f\uff0c\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u5f97\u5230\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u6211\u6703\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u6a02\u89c0\u3002 \u540c\u6a23\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u57282023\u5e74\u901a\u904e\u8abf\u6574\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u898f\u5247\u548c\u89e3\u6c7a\u623f\u5730\u7522\u5d29\u76e4\u554f\u984c\u4f86\u5e36\u4f86\u9a5a\u559c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u600e\u9ebc\u8fa6<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p>\u5118\u7ba1\u901a\u8139\u7387\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u6703\u51fa\u552e\u50f9\u683c\u4ecd\u7136\u5408\u7406\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5728\u718a\u5e02\u53cd\u5f48\u6642\u51fa\u552e\uff0c\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u7f8e\u5143\u73fe\u91d1\u5132\u5099\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5728\u5373\u5c07\u5230\u4f86\u7684\u5371\u6a5f\u4e2d\u4ee5\u4f4e\u50f9\u9032\u884c\u6295\u8cc7\u3002 \u5982\u679c\u6211\u7684\u95b1\u8b80\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u61f7\u7591\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u4e0d\u6703\u6062\u5fa9\uff0c\u4f60\u7e3d\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ee5\u8207\u9000\u51fa\u6642\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u91cd\u65b0\u9032\u5165\u3002 \u6211\u91cd\u65b0\u9032\u5165\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u523b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u98a8\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u662f\u5229\u7387\u518d\u6b21\u958b\u59cb\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u6642\u5019\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u662f\u5c0d\u7684\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\u5c07\u8b8a\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u8da3\uff0c\u4e0d\u826f\u8cc7\u7522\u5c07\u8b8a\u5f97\u7279\u5225\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u3002 \u9019\u5c07\u662f\u81ea2008-2009\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u56f0\u5883\u9031\u671f\u3002 \u6211\u9810\u8a08\u4e0d\u826f\u50b5\u5238\u3001\u623f\u5730\u7522\u751a\u81f3\u52a0\u5bc6\u8ca8\u5e63\u90fd\u6703\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u6a5f\u6703\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u6b64\u898f\u5247\u7684\u4f8b\u5916\u60c5\u6cc1\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u7684\u623f\u5730\u7522\u5229\u7387\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\uff0c\u5247\u6709 30 \u5e74\u671f\u56fa\u5b9a\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\u3002 \u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc 15-20%\uff0c\u60a8\u6700\u597d\u4fdd\u7559\u60a8\u7684\u623f\u5730\u7522\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6309\u7167\u76ee\u524d 7% \u7684\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u60a8\u8cfc\u8cb7\u623f\u5730\u7522\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u5c07\u53d7\u5230\u9ad8\u9054 50% \u7684\u640d\u5bb3\uff0c\u5177\u9ad4\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u60a8\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6709\u591a\u4f4e\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u76ee\u524d\u9ad8\u65bc\u60a8\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\u60a8\u7684\u5be6\u969b\u50b5\u52d9\u8ca0\u64d4\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u6211\u9084\u6703\u6e1b\u5c11\u4f60\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u73fe\u91d1\u5132\u5099\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5c0e\u81f4\u4f60\u5931\u696d\u3002 \u511f\u9084\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u8b8a\u9ad8\u606f\u8cb8\u6b3e\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4fe1\u7528\u5361\u50b5\u52d9\uff0c\u4f46\u4fdd\u7559\u4f4e\u606f\u50b5\u52d9\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u6b77\u53f2\u52dd\u904e\u5b8f\u89c0<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p>\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u552f\u4e00\u53ef\u4ee5\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u662f\u8655\u65bc\u65e9\u671f\u968e\u6bb5\u7684\u79c1\u71df\u79d1\u6280\u521d\u5275\u516c\u53f8\u3002 \u65e9\u671f\u4f30\u503c\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002 \u5275\u59cb\u4eba\u5c08\u6ce8\u65bc\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u55ae\u4f4d\u7d93\u6fdf\u6548\u76ca\u3002 \u4ed6\u5011\u6b63\u5728\u9650\u5236\u73fe\u91d1\u6d88\u8017\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u5169\u5e74\u5167\u4e0d\u5fc5\u9032\u5165\u5e02\u5834\u3002 \u521d\u5275\u516c\u53f8\u9762\u81e8\u8457\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u5ba2\u6236\u7372\u53d6\u6210\u672c\u548c\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u3002 \u96d6\u7136\u9000\u51fa\u6642\u9593\u5c07\u63a8\u9072\uff0c\u9000\u51fa\u500d\u6578\u5c07\u4f4e\u65bc\u904e\u53bb\u5e7e\u5e74\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u61c9\u8a72\u901a\u904e\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u5165\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7372\u52dd\u8005\u5c07\u8d0f\u5f97\u6574\u500b\u985e\u5225\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\u4f86\u5f4c\u88dc\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u5c0d\u65bc\u9019\u4e9b\u521d\u5275\u516c\u53f8\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u662f6-8\u5e74\u5f8c\u4ed6\u5011\u5c0b\u6c42\u9000\u51fa\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7576\u524d\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u3002 \u5c31\u76ee\u524d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u4ed6\u5011\u7c4c\u96c6\u5230\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u73fe\u91d1\u4e26\u589e\u9577\u5230\u8db3\u4ee5\u9032\u884c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u878d\u8cc7\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u66ab\u6642\u907f\u514d\u8cc7\u672c\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u884c\u696d\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u904e\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u6700\u597d\u7684\u5275\u696d\u6295\u8cc7\u662f\u57282008\u5e74\u81f32011\u5e74\u4e4b\u9593\u9032\u884c\u7684\uff08Uber\uff0cAirbnb\uff0cWhatsapp\uff0cInstagram\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u61f7\u75912020\u5e74\u4ee3\u6700\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5c07\u57282022\u5e74\u81f32024\u5e74\u4e4b\u9593\u9032\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5f9e\u9577\u9060\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u52dd\u904e\u5b8f\u89c0\u3002 \u6211\u5c0d\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u4ecd\u7136\u975e\u5e38\u6a02\u89c0\u3002 \u81ea1950\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u901911\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6301\u7e8c\u4e862\u81f318\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u9593\u70ba10\u500b\u6708\u3002 \u6211\u5011\u5c07\u5f9e\u4e2d\u8d70\u51fa\u4f86\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u9000\u5f8c\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u904e\u53bb 200 \u5e74\u662f\u6280\u8853\u9032\u6b65\u548c\u5275\u65b0\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u7d93\u6b77\u4e86\u7121\u6578\u6b21\u6230\u722d\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4f46\u4eba\u985e\u72c0\u6cc1\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u6539\u5584\u3002<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-tiktok wp-block-embed-tiktok\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"tiktok-embed\" cite=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@20vc_tok\/video\/7096134571707714822\" data-video-id=\"7096134571707714822\" data-embed-from=\"oembed\" style=\"max-width:605px; min-width:325px;\"> <section> <a target=\"_blank\" title=\"@20vc_tok\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@20vc_tok?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">@20vc_tok<\/a> <p>What trends break through recessions? <a title=\"recessionproof\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/recessionproof?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#recessionproof<\/a> <a title=\"futureproof\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/futureproof?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#futureproof<\/a> <a title=\"fabricegrinda\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/fabricegrinda?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#FabriceGrinda<\/a> <a title=\"techtrends\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/techtrends?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#techtrends<\/a> <a title=\"technology\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/technology?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#technology<\/a> <a title=\"macroeconomics\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/macroeconomics?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#macroeconomics<\/a> <a title=\"fjlabs\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/fjlabs?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#FJLabs<\/a> <a title=\"harrystebbings\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/harrystebbings?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#HarryStebbings<\/a> <a title=\"20vc\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/20vc?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#20VC<\/a> <a title=\"techhistory\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/techhistory?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#techhistory<\/a> <a title=\"futureinvestements\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/futureinvestements?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#futureinvestements<\/a><\/p> <a target=\"_blank\" title=\"\u266c Stories 2 - Danilo Stankovic\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/music\/Stories-2-6777279827805390850?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">\u266c Stories 2 &#8211; Danilo Stankovic<\/a> <\/section> <\/blockquote> <script async src=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/embed.js\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n<p>\u7531\u65bc\u6280\u8853\u7684\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u666e\u901a\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u54c1\u8cea\u662f\u6614\u65e5\u570b\u738b\u7121\u6cd5\u60f3\u50cf\u7684\u3002 \u7531\u65bc\u898f\u6a21\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u7db2\u8def\u6548\u61c9\u3001\u77e5\u8b58\u548c\u88fd\u9020\u4e2d\u7684\u6b63\u53cd\u994b\u8ff4\u5708\uff08\u4e5f\u7a31\u70ba\u5b78\u7fd2\u66f2\u7dda\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f01\u696d\u5bb6\u5e0c\u671b\u958b\u62d3\u76e1\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4e26\u76e1\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u5730\u5f71\u97ff\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u65b0\u6280\u8853\u8fc5\u901f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u9019\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e86\u7d50\u679c\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u3002 100\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5bcc\u4eba\u53bb\u5ea6\u5047\uff0c\u6709\u4ea4\u901a\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5ba4\u5167\u7ba1\u9053\u6216\u96fb\u529b\u3002 \u4eca\u5929\u5728\u897f\u65b9\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u6709\u96fb\u3001\u6c7d\u8eca\u3001\u96fb\u8166\u548c\u667a\u80fd\u624b\u6a5f\u3002 \u5e7e\u4e4e\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u53bb\u5ea6\u5047\uff0c\u8cb7\u5f97\u8d77\u98db\u6a5f\u3002 \u6211\u5011\u7406\u6240\u7576\u7136\u5730\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5e7e\u500b\u5c0f\u6642\u5167\u524d\u5f80\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u7aef\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u64c1\u6709\u514d\u8cbb\u7684\u5168\u7403\u8996\u983b\u901a\u4fe1\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9084\u53ef\u4ee5\u7372\u5f97\u4eba\u985e\u77e5\u8b58\u7684\u7e3d\u548c\u3002 \u5728\u5370\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u64c1\u6709\u667a\u6167\u624b\u6a5f\u7684\u7aae\u9109\u50fb\u58e4\uff0c\u6bd430\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u7372\u5f97\u8cc7\u8a0a\u548c\u901a\u4fe1\u3002 \u9019\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u4e86\u4e0d\u8d77\u7684\u58ef\u8209\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5118\u7ba1\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u9019\u4e9b\u9032\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u4ecd\u8655\u65bc\u6280\u8853\u9769\u547d\u7684\u8d77\u6b65\u968e\u6bb5\u3002 \u6700\u5927\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u90e8\u9580\u5c1a\u672a\u5be6\u73fe\u6578\u4f4d\u5316\uff1a\u516c\u5171\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u5065\u6216\u6559\u80b2\u3002 \u5927\u591a\u6578\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u4ecd\u8655\u65bc\u96e2\u7dda\u72c0\u614b\u3002 \u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6578\u4f4d\u5316\u5c07\u4f7f\u5b83\u5011\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u4e26\u5be6\u73fe\u901a\u8ca8\u7dca\u7e2e\uff0c\u9019\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u53c8\u5c07\u662f\u5305\u5bb9\u6027\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728FJ Labs\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9047\u5230\u4e86\u8a31\u591a\u975e\u51e1\u7684\u5275\u59cb\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u6b63\u5728\u89e3\u6c7a21<sup>\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u554f\u984c<\/sup> \uff0c\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u6a5f\u6703\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u4ee5\u53ca\u8eab\u5fc3\u5065\u5eb7\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6a02\u89c0\u5730\u8a8d\u70ba\u4eba\u985e\u5c07\u8fce\u63a5\u6211\u5011\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u6311\u6230\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728\u6b63\u78ba\u95b1\u8b80\u5b8f\u89c0\u8336\u8449\u4e26\u5728 2021 \u5e74\u76e1\u53ef\u80fd\u591a\u5730\u51fa\u552e\u6211\u5011\u7684\u5f8c\u671f\u548c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8ca8\u5e63\u982d\u5bf8\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u767c\u73fe\u81ea\u5df1\u8655\u65bc\u73fe\u91d1\u5145\u88d5\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u53ea\u90e8\u7f72\u4e86 25% \u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u3002 \u4f5c\u70ba\u9006\u5411\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u73fe\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u975e\u5e38\u7a4d\u6975\u5730\u6295\u8cc7\u65bc\u8f15\u8cc7\u7522\u4f01\u696d\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u975e\u5e38\u69ae\u5e78\u80fd\u5920\u5e6b\u52a9\u5efa\u8a2d\u4e00\u500b\u66f4\u7f8e\u597d\u7684\u660e\u5929\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u6a5f\u6703\u5747\u7b49\u3001\u5bcc\u8db3\u3001\u5177\u6709\u793e\u6703\u610f\u8b58\u548c\u74b0\u5883\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u6027\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u5e7e\u5e74\u5c07\u662f\u8271\u96e3\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u73fe\u5728\u662f\u5efa\u8a2d\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u6642\u6a5f\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u6bd4\u4ee5\u5f80\u4efb\u4f55\u6642\u5019\u90fd\u66f4\u5f37\u5927\u3001\u66f4\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6211\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u5b8f\u89c0\u8003\u616e\u3002 \u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c0\u52dd\u904e\u5fae\u89c0\u3002 \u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u6642 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/grinda.org\/zh-hant\/%e5%86%ac%e5%a4%a9%e4%be%86%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%81\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u95b1\u8b80\u5168\u6587<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u3008\u51ac\u5929\u4f86\u4e86\uff01\u3009<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":40000,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761,762],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-761","category--zh-hant"],"acf":[],"contentUpdated":"\u51ac\u5929\u4f86\u4e86\uff01. Categories - \u7d93\u6fdf, \u7d93\u6fdf. Date-Posted - 2022-11-18T16:48:14 . \n \u6211\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u5b8f\u89c0\u8003\u616e\u3002 \u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c0\u52dd\u904e\u5fae\u89c0\u3002 \u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u6642\u523b\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\u90fd\u8207\u7e41\u69ae\u6642\u523b\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684 1 \u76f8\u95dc\u3002 \u76e1\u8077\u8abf\u67e5\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u5728\u5916\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7121\u6cd5\u5c07\u51fa\u8272\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u8207\u820a\u516c\u53f8\u5340\u5206\u958b\u4f86\u3002 \u540c\u6a23\uff0c\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u856d\u689d\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\u90fd\u8207\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684 1 \u76f8\u95dc\u3002 \u5e02\u5834\u628a\u5b30\u5152\u548c\u6d17\u6fa1\u6c34\u4e00\u8d77\u6254\u6389\u3002\n \u5728\u904e\u53bb\u768418\u500b\u6708\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e00\u76f4\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\u3002 2021\u5e742\u6708\uff0c\u6211\u5728 \u300a\u6b61\u8fce\u4f86\u5230\u4e00\u5207\u6ce1\u6cab \u300b\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8ca0\u5be6\u969b\u5229\u7387\u548c\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u64f4\u5f35\u6027\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u6b63\u5728\u52a9\u9577\u6240\u6709\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u662f\u7a4d\u6975\u62cb\u552e\u9ad8\u4f30\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6642\u5019\u4e86\u3002 \u4eca\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u6211\u5728 \u300a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u672a\u77e5\u300b\u4e00\u66f8\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u56b4\u91cd\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002 \u81ea\u90a3\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u98a8\u96aa\u53ea\u589e\u4e0d\u6e1b\u3002\n   @20vc_tok #1 angel investor in the world #FabriceGrinda explains why #recession is so likely #2022 #economy #investor #investors #FJLabs #20VC #HarryStebbings \u266c Violin &#8211; Grooving Gecko   \n \u770b\u8dcc\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u5171\u8b58\u3002 \u50cf\u5f80\u5e38\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u6211\u662f\u9006\u52e2\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u9006\u5411\u89c0\u9ede\u662f\u5171\u8b58\u9084\u4e0d\u5920\u770b\u8dcc\u3002 \u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u90fd\u5728\u70ba2023\u5e74\u7684\u67d0\u7a2e\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u8edf\u8457\u9678\u6216\u6eab\u548c\u8870\u9000\u505a\u6e96\u5099\u3002 \u6211\u5011\u9060\u672a\u9677\u5165\u7d55\u671b\u7684\u5c71\u8c37\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u90fd\u5df2\u55aa\u5931\u3002 \u4efb\u4f55\u4e0d\u5982\u9810\u671f\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u90fd\u6703\u8b93\u5e02\u5834\u6495\u88c2\u3002 \u9019\u767c\u751f\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\uff0c\u7576\u6642CPI\u6578\u64da\u70ba7.7%\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f7.9%\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7576\u4eba\u5011\u8208\u9ad8\u91c7\u70c8\u5730\u8fce\u63a5\u52a0\u606f\u901f\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u6642\u3002 \u8acb\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u589e\u9577\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4ecd\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e8c\u968e\u5c0e\u6578\u70ba\u8ca0\u6578\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u968e\u5c0e\u6578\u4ecd\u70ba\u6b63\u6578\uff09\u3002\n \u6709\u4e5d\u500b\u56e0\u7d20\u63a8\u52d5\u4e86\u6211\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u60c5\u7dd2\u3002\n 1. \u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u4eba\u5011\u9810\u671f\u7684\u8981\u9ad8\uff0c\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u9593\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u4eba\u5011\u9810\u671f\u7684\u8981\u9577\n \u5728 9 \u6708 20 \u65e5\u81f3 21 \u65e5\u7684 FOMC \u6703\u8b70\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u627f\u92b7\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u5c07\u9054\u5230 3.5% \u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u3002 \u76ee\u524d\u70ba 3.75% \u81f3 4%\uff0c\u9810\u8a08 2023 \u5e74\u5c07\u9054\u5230 4.6% \u7684\u5cf0\u503c\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u518d\u6b21\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\n \u4eca\u5e74\u65e9\u4e9b\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u64d4\u5fc3\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u8003\u616e\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc5%\u7684\u5f8c\u679c\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u5011\u6c92\u6709\u8003\u616e\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\u3002 \u9019\u662f\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u4e2d\u5171\u8b58\u4e00\u518d\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u9818\u57df\u3002\n \u7531\u65bc\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u7136\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u96a8\u8457\u5de5\u4eba\u958b\u59cb\u8981\u6c42\u6839\u64da\u9810\u671f\u7684\u901a\u8139\u4e0a\u5347\u8981\u6c42\u52a0\u85aa\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5728\u6bd4\u4eba\u5011\u9810\u671f\u7684\u66f4\u9577\u7684\u6642\u9593\u5167\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002 \u5982\u679c\u5229\u7387\u6700\u7d42\u9054\u5230 5.5% \u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e26\u5728 2024 \u5e74\u6216\u66f4\u9577\u6642\u9593\u5167\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u6703\u611f\u5230\u9a5a\u8a1d\u3002\n 2. \u5f37\u52e2\u7f8e\u5143\u6b63\u5728\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u88fd\u9020\u4e3b\u6b0a\u50b5\u52d9\u5371\u6a5f\n \u5927\u591a\u6578\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u8a08\u50f9\uff0c\u4f46\u7a05\u6536\u4ee5\u7576\u5730\u8ca8\u5e63\u8a08\u50f9\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u7684\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7d93\u5e38\u81ea\u6211\u9020\u6210\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u4f7f\u7f8e\u5143\u5927\u5e45\u8d70\u5f37\u3002\n \u9019\u4e00\u589e\u9577\u4f7f\u8a31\u591a\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u8655\u65bc\u5c8c\u5c8c\u53ef\u5371\u7684\u5883\u5730\u3002 \u65af\u91cc\u862d\u5361\u5df2\u7d93\u9055\u7d04\u3002 \u8fe6\u7d0d\u548c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u662f\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u9762\u81e8\u58d3\u529b\u3002\n 3. \u9ad8\u6cb9\u50f9\u5c07\u5c0e\u81f4\u5fb7\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\n \u904e\u53bb\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u7684\u5546\u696d\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u7528\u5ec9\u50f9\u7684\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u88fd\u9020\u6771\u897f\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u4e2d\u570b\u3002 \u9019\u7a2e\u5546\u696d\u6a21\u5f0f\u6b63\u9762\u81e8\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u3002 \u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u95dc\u9589\u5317\u6eaa\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u4f7f\u5fb7\u570b\u6c92\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u4f86\u4f9b\u6696\u5176\u4eba\u53e3\u4f75\u70ba\u5176\u4f9d\u8cf4\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u7684\u91cd\u5de5\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u71c3\u6599\u3002 \u914d\u7d66\u548c\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u5c07\u5c0e\u81f4\u5fb7\u570b\u57282023\u5e74\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u6839\u64da\u51ac\u5b63\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u9593\u548c\u56b4\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f30\u8a08GDP\u5c07\u6536\u7e2e0.4%\u81f37.9%\u3002\n 4. \u65b0\u7684\u6b50\u5143\u5371\u6a5f\u8feb\u5728\u7709\u776b\n 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\u9019\u4e9b\u9280\u884c\u767c\u73fe\u81ea\u5df1\u8655\u65bc\u6700\u8fd1\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u6d89\u53ca\u4e0d\u826f\u8cb8\u6b3e\u7684\u570b\u969b\u5d29\u6f70\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Archegos\u3001Greensil\u3001Luckin Coffee\u7b49\u3002 \u4ee5\u5916\u5e63\u8a08\u50f9\u7684\u8cb8\u6b3e\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u76f8\u7576\u65bc\u745e\u58ebGDP\u7684~400%\u3002 \u64da\u5b98\u65b9\u7d71\u8a08\uff0c\u745e\u58eb\u9280\u884c\u7cfb\u7d71\u8cc7\u7522\u662f ~ 4.7 \u500d GDP\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u5916\u8cc7\u7522\u3002 \u5305\u62ec\u9019\u4e9b\u8868\u660e ~9.5x 10x \u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u66f4\u6e96\u78ba\u3002\n   @20vc_tok Could #Switzerland default on their debt? #FabriceGrinda on #20VC with HarryStebbings. #swisseconomy #creditsuisse #archegos #greensill #iceland #recession2022 #economics #venturecapital #zurich #swissbank \u266c Suspense, horror, piano and music box &#8211; takaya   \n 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