{"id":39503,"date":"2022-11-18T16:48:14","date_gmt":"2022-11-18T16:48:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prod.fabricegrinda.com\/%e5%86%ac%e5%a4%a9%e6%9d%a5%e4%ba%86\/"},"modified":"2024-05-23T07:45:03","modified_gmt":"2024-05-23T07:45:03","slug":"%e5%86%ac%e5%a4%a9%e6%9d%a5%e4%ba%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/grinda.org\/zh-hans\/%e5%86%ac%e5%a4%a9%e6%9d%a5%e4%ba%86\/","title":{"rendered":"\u51ac\u5929\u6765\u4e86"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u6211\u82b1\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5fc3\u601d\u8003\u8651\u5b8f\u89c2\u95ee\u9898\u3002 \u6709\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u80dc\u8fc7\u5fae\u89c2\u3002 \u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b\u5728\u7e41\u8363\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u90fd\u4e0e 1 \u76f8\u5173\u3002 \u5c3d\u804c\u8c03\u67e5\u88ab\u629b\u5230\u4e5d\u9704\u4e91\u5916\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u533a\u5206\u4f18\u79c0\u516c\u53f8\u548c\u5783\u573e\u516c\u53f8\u3002 \u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8427\u6761\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b\u5728\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u90fd\u662f 1\u3002 \u5e02\u573a\u628a\u5b69\u5b50\u548c\u6d17\u6fa1\u6c34\u4e00\u8d77\u5012\u6389\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684 18 \u4e2a\u6708\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002 2021 \u5e74 2 \u6708\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/welcome-to-the-everything-bubble\/\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/welcome-to-the-everything-bubble\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6b22\u8fce\u6765\u5230\u4e07\u7269\u6ce1\u6cab<\/a>\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8d1f\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u548c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u6027\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u6b63\u5728\u52a9\u957f\u5404\u7c7b\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u79ef\u6781\u629b\u552e\u9ad8\u4f30\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4e86\u3002 \u4eca\u5e74 3 \u6708\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/the-great-unknown\/\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/the-great-unknown\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u672a\u77e5\u300b<\/a>\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e25\u91cd\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002 \u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\u53ea\u589e\u4e0d\u51cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:20%\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-tiktok wp-block-embed-tiktok\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"tiktok-embed\" cite=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@20vc_tok\/video\/7095411174233099526\" data-video-id=\"7095411174233099526\" data-embed-from=\"oembed\" style=\"max-width:605px; min-width:325px;\"> <section> <a target=\"_blank\" title=\"@20vc_tok\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@20vc_tok?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">@20vc_tok<\/a> <p><a title=\"1\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/1?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#1<\/a> angel investor in the world <a title=\"fabricegrinda\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/fabricegrinda?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#FabriceGrinda<\/a> explains why <a title=\"recession\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/recession?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#recession<\/a> is so likely <a title=\"2022\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/2022?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#2022<\/a> <a title=\"economy\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/economy?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#economy<\/a> <a title=\"investor\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/investor?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#investor<\/a> <a title=\"investors\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/investors?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#investors<\/a> <a title=\"fjlabs\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/fjlabs?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#FJLabs<\/a> <a title=\"20vc\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/20vc?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#20VC<\/a> <a title=\"harrystebbings\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/harrystebbings?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#HarryStebbings<\/a><\/p> <a target=\"_blank\" title=\"\u266c Violin - Grooving Gecko\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/music\/Violin-6732129806218954753?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">\u266c Violin &#8211; Grooving Gecko<\/a> <\/section> <\/blockquote> <script async src=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/embed.js\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:20%\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u770b\u8dcc\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u5171\u8bc6\u3002 \u50cf\u5f80\u5e38\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6211\u662f\u4e2a\u9006\u5411\u601d\u7ef4\u8005\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u9006\u5411\u601d\u7ef4\u662f\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\u8fd8\u4e0d\u591f\u770b\u8dcc\u3002 \u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a 2023 \u5e74\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u67d0\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u8f6f\u7740\u9646\u6216\u6e29\u548c\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u6211\u4eec\u8fdc\u672a\u9677\u5165\u7edd\u671b\u7684\u6df1\u8c37\uff0c\u5931\u53bb\u6240\u6709\u7684\u5e0c\u671b\u3002 \u4efb\u4f55\u574f\u6d88\u606f\u53ea\u8981\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5c31\u4f1a\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002 \u4e0a\u5468\uff0c\u5f53 CPI \u516c\u5e03\u4e3a 7.7% \u800c\u4e0d\u662f 7.9% \u65f6\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u901f\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u611f\u5230\u6b23\u559c\u82e5\u72c2\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5c31\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u3002 \u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u589e\u957f\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4ecd\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e8c\u9636\u5bfc\u6570\u4e3a\u8d1f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u9636\u5bfc\u6570\u4ecd\u4e3a\u6b63\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"597\" height=\"458\" src=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture1-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19257\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u6709\u4e5d\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6211\u770b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1.<strong>\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u4eba\u4eec\u9884\u671f\u7684\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u4eba\u4eec\u9884\u671f\u7684\u66f4\u957f<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u5728 9 \u6708 20-21 \u65e5\u7684 FOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u4e3a 3.5%\u3002 \u76ee\u524d\u4e3a 3.75% \u81f3 4%\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u5728 2023 \u5e74\u8fbe\u5230\u5cf0\u503c 4.6%\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u6b21\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u4eca\u5e74\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u66fe\u62c5\u5fc3\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u8003\u8651\u5229\u7387\u8d85\u8fc7 5%\u7684\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e0d\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u8303\u56f4\u4e4b\u5185\u3002 \u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u8bc6\u5c61\u5c61\u51fa\u9519\u7684\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture2-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19259\" width=\"602\" height=\"380\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6709\u8ff9\u8c61\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5de5\u4eba\u5f00\u59cb\u8981\u6c42\u6309\u7167\u9884\u671f\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\u5de5\u8d44\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5229\u7387\u5927\u5e45\u8d70\u9ad8\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6bd4\u4eba\u4eec\u9884\u671f\u7684\u66f4\u957f\u3002 \u5982\u679c\u5229\u7387\u6700\u7ec8\u8fbe\u5230 5.5%\u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e00\u76f4\u7ef4\u6301\u5230 2024 \u5e74\u6216\u66f4\u4e45\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u60ca\u8bb6\u3002<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:30%\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Could the Fed raise interest rates to 20%  ??\" width=\"840\" height=\"473\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/tKHgFRamWuE?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:30%\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2.<strong>\u5f3a\u52bf\u7f8e\u5143\u6b63\u5728\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u5236\u9020\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u5927\u591a\u6570\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u8ba1\u4ef7\uff0c\u4f46\u7a0e\u6536\u4ee5\u5f53\u5730\u8d27\u5e01\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002 \u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e0a\u8c03\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u9020\u6210\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5931\u8bef\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u7f8e\u5143\u5927\u5e45\u8d70\u5f3a\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture3-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19261\" width=\"609\" height=\"342\" srcset=\"https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture3-1.png 1430w, https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture3-1-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture3-1-1200x675.png 1200w, https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture3-1-1320x742.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u589e\u957f\u4f7f\u8bb8\u591a\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u5c8c\u5c8c\u53ef\u5371\u3002 \u65af\u91cc\u5170\u5361\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002 \u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u662f\u52a0\u7eb3\u548c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e5f\u9762\u4e34\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3.<strong>\u9ad8\u6cb9\u4ef7\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u5fb7\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u5229\u7528\u5ec9\u4ef7\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u5efa\u9020\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002 \u8fd9\u79cd\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u6b63\u53d7\u5230\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002 \u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5173\u95ed\u5317\u6eaa\u7ba1\u9053\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u5fb7\u56fd\u5931\u53bb\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u5929\u7136\u6c14\uff0c\u65e2\u65e0\u6cd5\u4e3a\u5c45\u6c11\u4f9b\u6696\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u4e3a\u4f9d\u8d56\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u7684\u91cd\u5de5\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u71c3\u6599\u3002 \u914d\u7ed9\u5236\u548c\u7269\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u5fb7\u56fd\u5728 2023 \u5e74\u51fa\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u51ac\u5b63\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u5c06\u840e\u7f29 0.4% \u5230 7.9%\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4.<strong>\u65b0\u7684\u6b27\u5143\u5371\u673a\u8feb\u5728\u7709\u776b<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>2007-2008 \u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u540e\uff0c\u5e0c\u814a\u51e0\u4e4e\u62d6\u57ae\u4e86\u6b27\u5143\u3002 \u8bb8\u591a\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f PIGS\uff08\u8461\u8404\u7259\u3001\u610f\u5927\u5229\u3001\u5e0c\u814a\u3001\u897f\u73ed\u7259\uff09\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u72b6\u51b5\u73b0\u5728\u6bd4\u5f53\u65f6\u4e25\u91cd\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture4-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19263\" width=\"607\" height=\"403\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8d1f\u503a\u6c34\u5e73\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u9ad8\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u8d44\u4e0d\u62b5\u503a\u3002 \u6700\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u80fd\u6765\u81ea\u610f\u5927\u5229\uff0c\u5176\u503a\u52a1\u4e0e\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u73b0\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7 150%\uff0c\u5176\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u6a21\u662f\u5e0c\u814a\u7684\u5341\u500d\u3002 \u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8be5\u56fd\u9009\u4e3e\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u53f3\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u53ef\u80fd\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u591a\u5c11\u53cb\u597d\u7684\u9762\u5b54\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5fb7\u56fd\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u80fd\u6e90\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u6211\u731c\u6d4b\uff0c\u5f53\u5371\u673a\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5c06\u4e0d\u60dc\u4e00\u5207\u4ee3\u4ef7\u7ef4\u62a4\u6b27\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5c06\u6781\u5176\u75db\u82e6\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5.<strong>\u94f6\u884c\u5371\u673a\u4e00\u89e6\u5373\u53d1<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u4eca\u5e74\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u66fe\u9884\u6d4b\u745e\u58eb\u4fe1\u8d37\u94f6\u884c\uff08Credit Suisse\uff09\u548c\u745e\u94f6\u96c6\u56e2\uff08UBS\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u62d6\u57ae\u745e\u58eb\u3002 \u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u8d77\u6d89\u53ca\u4e0d\u826f\u8d37\u6b3e\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u94f6\u884c\u90fd\u5904\u4e8e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u5982 Archegos\u3001Greensil\u3001Luckin Coffee \u7b49\u3002 \u5916\u5e01\u8d37\u6b3e\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u5360\u745e\u58eb\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u7684\u7ea6 400%\u3002 \u745e\u58eb\u94f6\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ea6\u4e3a GDP \u7684 4.7 \u500d\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5916\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002 \u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u8003\u8651\u5728\u5185\uff0c9.5x 10x \u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u66f4\u4e3a\u51c6\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:20%\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-tiktok wp-block-embed-tiktok\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"tiktok-embed\" cite=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@20vc_tok\/video\/7095560238253870342\" data-video-id=\"7095560238253870342\" data-embed-from=\"oembed\" style=\"max-width:605px; min-width:325px;\"> <section> <a target=\"_blank\" title=\"@20vc_tok\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@20vc_tok?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">@20vc_tok<\/a> <p>Could <a title=\"switzerland\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/switzerland?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#Switzerland<\/a> default on their debt? <a title=\"fabricegrinda\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/fabricegrinda?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#FabriceGrinda<\/a> on <a title=\"20vc\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/20vc?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#20VC<\/a> with HarryStebbings. <a title=\"swisseconomy\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/swisseconomy?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#swisseconomy<\/a> <a title=\"creditsuisse\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/creditsuisse?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#creditsuisse<\/a> <a title=\"archegos\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/archegos?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#archegos<\/a> <a title=\"greensill\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/greensill?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#greensill<\/a> <a title=\"iceland\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/iceland?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#iceland<\/a> <a title=\"recession2022\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/recession2022?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#recession2022<\/a> <a title=\"economics\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/economics?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#economics<\/a> <a title=\"venturecapital\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/venturecapital?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#venturecapital<\/a> <a title=\"zurich\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/zurich?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#zurich<\/a> <a title=\"swissbank\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/swissbank?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#swissbank<\/a><\/p> <a target=\"_blank\" title=\"\u266c Suspense, horror, piano and music box - takaya\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/music\/Suspense-horror-piano-and-music-box-6817193198436255745?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">\u266c Suspense, horror, piano and music box &#8211; takaya<\/a> <\/section> <\/blockquote> <script async src=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/embed.js\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:20%\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<p>\u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u9010\u6e10\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u745e\u58eb\u4fe1\u8d37\u7684\u5f31\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19265\" width=\"620\" height=\"377\" srcset=\"https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture5.png 1143w, https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture5-768x467.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u6b27\u6d32\u94f6\u884c\u666e\u904d\u5904\u4e8e\u5f31\u52bf\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 \u5b83\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f7f\u5b83\u4eec\u9762\u4e34 PIGS \u53ef\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u91cd\u7ec4\u3002 \u5b83\u4eec\u4ee5\u6781\u4f4e\u7684\u5229\u7387\u53d1\u653e\u4e86\u62b5\u62bc\u7269\u5f88\u5c11\u7684\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8c03\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u50cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u540c\u884c\u90a3\u6837\u5efa\u7acb\u5927\u91cf\u50a8\u5907\u3002 \u5982\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u5168\u9762\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u4e0d\u96be\u60f3\u8c61\u6574\u4e2a\u94f6\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u90fd\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u94f6\u884c\u4f1a\u7aed\u529b\u907f\u514d\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6.<strong>\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u5373\u5c06\u4e0b\u8dcc<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u4e0e\u6240\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002 \u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u503c\u90fd\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19266\" width=\"609\" height=\"485\" srcset=\"https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture6.png 863w, https:\/\/grinda.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture6-768x611.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb 18 \u4e2a\u6708\u4e2d\u4ece 2.5% \u4e0a\u5347\u5230 7%\uff0c\u4f46\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u5c1a\u672a\u8c03\u6574\u3002 \u5356\u5bb6\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u6765\u8c03\u6574\u4ef7\u683c\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9996\u5148\u67af\u7aed\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb 3 \u4e2a\u6708\u91cc\uff0c\u5fb7\u514b\u8428\u65af\u5dde\u5965\u65af\u6c40\u7b49\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e86 7% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002 \u5982\u679c\u5728\u672a\u6765 24 \u4e2a\u6708\u5185\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8d85\u8fc7 15%\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u60ca\u8bb6\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Picture7.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19267\" width=\"604\" height=\"346\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u6b63\u5728\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u53d1\u751f\u3002 \u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684 11 \u4e2a\u6708\u91cc\uff0c\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e86 10.9%\u3002 \u9884\u8ba1\u745e\u5178\u7684\u623f\u4ef7\u5c06\u4ece\u5cf0\u503c\u4e0b\u964d 20%\u3002 \u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5c24\u5176\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u62e5\u6709\u6d6e\u52a8\u5229\u7387\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u90fd\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5229\u7387\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u8c03\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">7.<strong>\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u51b2\u7a81\u5c06\u4f7f\u8c37\u7269\u3001\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u548c\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u51b2\u7a81\u770b\u4e0d\u5230\u5c3d\u5934\u3002 \u9274\u4e8e\u8c37\u7269\u3001\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u548c\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u4ecd\u5c06\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u90fd\u5c06\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ef7\u683c\u662f\u7531\u4f9b\u5e94\u9650\u5236\u800c\u975e\u9ad8\u9700\u6c42\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5982\u679c\u5728\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u6218\u672f\u6838\u5f39\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5176\u540e\u679c\u5c06\u4e0d\u582a\u8bbe\u60f3\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">8.<strong>\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u548c\u6d88\u9664\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u529b\u91cf<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u548c\u901a\u8d27\u7d27\u7f29\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u529b\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u548c\u89c4\u6a21\u5316\u5236\u9020\u80fd\u529b\u4f7f\u4e16\u754c\u53d7\u76ca\u532a\u6d45\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6291\u5236\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u4e86\u3002 \u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u65e0\u80fd\uff0c\u5176\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u53cd\u79d1\u6280\u76d1\u7ba1\u548c\u666e\u904d\u7684\u53cd\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u538b\u57ae\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u91d1\u6208\u94c1\u9a6c\u653f\u7b56\u6b63\u5728\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u897f\u65b9\u8131\u94a9\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u89e3\u4f53\u3002 \u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u3001\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u6216\u56de\u5230\u672c\u571f\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u4f1a\u5931\u53bb\u8fc7\u53bb 30 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\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u90fd\u5728\u5173\u6ce8\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5355\u4f4d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u76ca\u3002 \u4ed6\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u9650\u5236\u73b0\u91d1\u6d88\u8017\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u4e24\u5e74\u5185\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8fdb\u5165\u5e02\u573a\u3002 \u521d\u521b\u4f01\u4e1a\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\u83b7\u53d6\u6210\u672c\u548c\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u3002 \u4e0e\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5e74\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u9000\u51fa\u4f1a\u63a8\u8fdf\uff0c\u9000\u51fa\u500d\u6570\u4e5f\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u88ab\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u5165\u5e02\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u8d62\u5bb6\u5c06\u8d62\u5f97\u6574\u4e2a\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6240\u5f25\u8865\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u521d\u521b\u4f01\u4e1a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u73af\u5883\u662f 6-8 \u5e74\u540e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bfb\u6c42\u9000\u51fa\u65f6\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u73af\u5883\u3002 \u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u7b79\u96c6\u5230\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\uff0c\u5e76\u5b9e\u73b0\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u878d\u8d44\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u76ee\u524d\u5e94\u907f\u5f00\u8d44\u672c\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u884c\u4e1a\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u6700\u597d\u7684\u521d\u521b\u4f01\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u662f\u5728 2008 \u5e74\u81f3 2011 \u5e74\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\uff08Uber\u3001Airbnb\u3001Whatsapp\u3001Instagram\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u731c\u6d4b 2020 \u5e74\u4ee3\u6700\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5c06\u5728 2022 \u5e74\u81f3 2024 \u5e74\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u4ece\u957f\u8fdc\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u80dc\u8fc7\u5b8f\u89c2\u3002 \u6211\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4ecd\u7136\u975e\u5e38\u4e50\u89c2\u3002 \u81ea 1950 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c11 \u6b21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u5728 2 \u5230 18 \u4e2a\u6708\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u4e3a 10 \u4e2a\u6708\u3002 \u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u8d70\u51fa\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u56de\u8fc7\u5934\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684 200 \u5e74\u662f\u4e00\u90e8\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u548c\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u65e0\u6570\u6b21\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4f46\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u6761\u4ef6\u8fd8\u662f\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u6539\u5584\u3002<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-tiktok wp-block-embed-tiktok\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"tiktok-embed\" cite=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@20vc_tok\/video\/7096134571707714822\" data-video-id=\"7096134571707714822\" data-embed-from=\"oembed\" style=\"max-width:605px; min-width:325px;\"> <section> <a target=\"_blank\" title=\"@20vc_tok\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/@20vc_tok?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">@20vc_tok<\/a> <p>What trends break through recessions? <a title=\"recessionproof\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/recessionproof?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#recessionproof<\/a> <a title=\"futureproof\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/futureproof?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#futureproof<\/a> <a title=\"fabricegrinda\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/fabricegrinda?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#FabriceGrinda<\/a> <a title=\"techtrends\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/techtrends?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#techtrends<\/a> <a title=\"technology\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/technology?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#technology<\/a> <a title=\"macroeconomics\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/macroeconomics?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#macroeconomics<\/a> <a title=\"fjlabs\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/fjlabs?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#FJLabs<\/a> <a title=\"harrystebbings\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/harrystebbings?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#HarryStebbings<\/a> <a title=\"20vc\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/20vc?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#20VC<\/a> <a title=\"techhistory\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/techhistory?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#techhistory<\/a> <a title=\"futureinvestements\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/tag\/futureinvestements?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">#futureinvestements<\/a><\/p> <a target=\"_blank\" title=\"\u266c Stories 2 - Danilo Stankovic\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/music\/Stories-2-6777279827805390850?refer=embed\" rel=\"noopener\">\u266c Stories 2 &#8211; Danilo Stankovic<\/a> <\/section> <\/blockquote> <script async src=\"https:\/\/www.tiktok.com\/embed.js\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u666e\u901a\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u8d28\u91cf\u662f\u6614\u65e5\u56fd\u738b\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u3002 \u7531\u4e8e\u89c4\u6a21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u5236\u9020\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\uff08\u4e5f\u79f0\u4e3a\u5b66\u4e60\u66f2\u7ebf\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u5e0c\u671b\u9762\u5411\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5730\u5f71\u54cd\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u613f\u671b\uff0c\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u8fc5\u901f\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u5927\u5927\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5e73\u7b49\u6027\u3002 100 \u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5bcc\u4eba\u624d\u4f1a\u53bb\u5ea6\u5047\u3001\u62e5\u6709\u4ea4\u901a\u5de5\u5177\u3001\u5ba4\u5185\u7ba1\u9053\u6216\u7535\u529b\u3002 \u5982\u4eca\u5728\u897f\u65b9\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u4eba\u4eba\u90fd\u6709\u7535\u3001\u6c7d\u8f66\u3001\u7535\u8111\u548c\u667a\u80fd\u624b\u673a\u3002 \u51e0\u4e4e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u4f1a\u53bb\u5ea6\u5047\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5750\u5f97\u8d77\u98de\u673a\u3002 \u6211\u4eec\u7406\u6240\u5f53\u7136\u5730\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u6570\u5c0f\u65f6\u5185\u5230\u8fbe\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u7aef\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u53e3\u888b\u91cc\u9664\u4e86\u53ef\u4ee5\u514d\u8d39\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u7403\u89c6\u9891\u901a\u4fe1\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u4eba\u7c7b\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u603b\u548c\u3002 \u5728\u5370\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u62e5\u6709\u667a\u80fd\u624b\u673a\u7684\u8d2b\u56f0\u519c\u6c11\u6240\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u901a\u4fe1\u6bd4 30 \u5e74\u524d\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u8fd8\u8981\u591a\u3002 \u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u4e86\u4e0d\u8d77\u7684\u58ee\u4e3e\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e\u6280\u672f\u9769\u547d\u7684\u8d77\u6b65\u9636\u6bb5\u3002 \u6700\u5927\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u90e8\u95e8\u5c1a\u672a\u5b9e\u73b0\u6570\u5b57\u5316\uff1a\u516c\u5171\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u6216\u6559\u80b2\u3002 \u5927\u591a\u6570\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e\u8131\u673a\u72b6\u6001\u3002 \u6570\u5b57\u5316\u5c06\u63d0\u9ad8\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u901a\u8d27\u7d27\u7f29\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5305\u5bb9\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728 FJ \u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9047\u5230\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u975e\u51e1\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u89e3\u51b3<sup>21<\/sup>\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5982\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u673a\u4f1a\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u3001\u8eab\u5fc3\u5065\u5eb7\u5371\u673a\u7b49\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u4e50\u89c2\u5730\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5c06\u8fce\u63a5\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e86\u5b8f\u89c2\u5f62\u52bf\uff0c\u5e76\u5728 2021 \u5e74\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u591a\u5730\u629b\u552e\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u540e\u671f\u548c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u4ed3\u4f4d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u81ea\u5df1\u73b0\u91d1\u5145\u88d5\uff0c\u4ec5\u90e8\u7f72\u4e86 25% \u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u3002 \u4f5c\u4e3a\u9006\u5411\u601d\u7ef4\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u6781\u5176\u79ef\u6781\u5730\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u8f7b\u8d44\u4ea7\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u975e\u5e38\u8363\u5e78\u80fd\u591f\u5e2e\u52a9\u5efa\u8bbe\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u7f8e\u597d\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u673a\u4f1a\u5747\u7b49\u3001\u5bcc\u8db3\u3001\u5177\u6709\u793e\u4f1a\u610f\u8bc6\u548c\u73af\u5883\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u4f1a\u5f88\u8270\u96be\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u5efa\u8bbe\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u65f6\u673a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u6bd4\u4ee5\u5f80\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u5019\u90fd\u66f4\u5f3a\u5927\u3001\u66f4\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u6211\u82b1\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5fc3\u601d\u8003\u8651\u5b8f\u89c2\u95ee\u9898\u3002 \u6709\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u80dc\u8fc7\u5fae\u89c2\u3002 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/zh-hans\/%e5%86%ac%e5%a4%a9%e6%9d%a5%e4%ba%86\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201c\u51ac\u5929\u6765\u4e86\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":39533,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[737,736],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category--zh-hans","category-736"],"acf":[],"contentUpdated":"\u51ac\u5929\u6765\u4e86. Categories - \u7ecf\u6d4e, \u7ecf\u6d4e. Date-Posted - 2022-11-18T16:48:14 . \n \u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u6211\u82b1\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5fc3\u601d\u8003\u8651\u5b8f\u89c2\u95ee\u9898\u3002 \u6709\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u80dc\u8fc7\u5fae\u89c2\u3002 \u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b\u5728\u7e41\u8363\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u90fd\u4e0e 1 \u76f8\u5173\u3002 \u5c3d\u804c\u8c03\u67e5\u88ab\u629b\u5230\u4e5d\u9704\u4e91\u5916\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u533a\u5206\u4f18\u79c0\u516c\u53f8\u548c\u5783\u573e\u516c\u53f8\u3002 \u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8427\u6761\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b\u5728\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u90fd\u662f 1\u3002 \u5e02\u573a\u628a\u5b69\u5b50\u548c\u6d17\u6fa1\u6c34\u4e00\u8d77\u5012\u6389\u4e86\u3002\n \u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684 18 \u4e2a\u6708\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002 2021 \u5e74 2 \u6708\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u300a\u6b22\u8fce\u6765\u5230\u4e07\u7269\u6ce1\u6cab\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8d1f\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u548c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u6027\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u6b63\u5728\u52a9\u957f\u5404\u7c7b\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u79ef\u6781\u629b\u552e\u9ad8\u4f30\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4e86\u3002 \u4eca\u5e74 3 \u6708\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u300a\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u672a\u77e5\u300b\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e25\u91cd\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002 \u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\u53ea\u589e\u4e0d\u51cf\u3002\n   @20vc_tok #1 angel investor in the world #FabriceGrinda explains why #recession is so likely #2022 #economy #investor #investors #FJLabs #20VC #HarryStebbings \u266c Violin &#8211; Grooving Gecko   \n \u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u770b\u8dcc\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u5171\u8bc6\u3002 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\u4ece\u957f\u8fdc\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u80dc\u8fc7\u5b8f\u89c2\u3002 \u6211\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4ecd\u7136\u975e\u5e38\u4e50\u89c2\u3002 \u81ea 1950 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c11 \u6b21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u5728 2 \u5230 18 \u4e2a\u6708\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u4e3a 10 \u4e2a\u6708\u3002 \u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u8d70\u51fa\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u56de\u8fc7\u5934\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684 200 \u5e74\u662f\u4e00\u90e8\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u548c\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u65e0\u6570\u6b21\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4f46\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u6761\u4ef6\u8fd8\u662f\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u6539\u5584\u3002\n   @20vc_tok What trends break through recessions? #recessionproof #futureproof #FabriceGrinda #techtrends #technology #macroeconomics #FJLabs #HarryStebbings #20VC #techhistory #futureinvestements \u266c Stories 2 &#8211; Danilo Stankovic   \n \u7531\u4e8e\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u666e\u901a\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u8d28\u91cf\u662f\u6614\u65e5\u56fd\u738b\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u3002 \u7531\u4e8e\u89c4\u6a21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u5236\u9020\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\uff08\u4e5f\u79f0\u4e3a\u5b66\u4e60\u66f2\u7ebf\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u5e0c\u671b\u9762\u5411\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5730\u5f71\u54cd\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u613f\u671b\uff0c\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u8fc5\u901f\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u3002\n \u8fd9\u5927\u5927\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5e73\u7b49\u6027\u3002 100 \u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5bcc\u4eba\u624d\u4f1a\u53bb\u5ea6\u5047\u3001\u62e5\u6709\u4ea4\u901a\u5de5\u5177\u3001\u5ba4\u5185\u7ba1\u9053\u6216\u7535\u529b\u3002 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