AI 是一场生产力革命,而非崩溃。

2026年2月25日    ·    2 min read

每一代人都相信自己发现了一项终将打破资本主义的技术: 现在,AI 被认为会引发严重的经济冲击,迅速取代白领工人,导致需求萎缩和市场动荡。 这种担忧并非荒谬,但历史表明这种看法并不全面。 生产力与繁荣并进 200 多年来,每一次重大的生产力冲击都提高了生活水平,而不是破坏了生活水平: 农业曾雇佣了约 40% 的美国劳动力,而今天这一比例不足 2%。 制造业就业人数在 20 世纪中期达到顶峰,并随着自动化的改进而下降。在过去的四十年里,文职工作已被系统地自动化。 然而: 这种模式非常明显: 生产力 ↑ → 成本 ↓ → 购买力 ↑ → 需求 ↑ → 新行业涌现 如果认为 … 继续阅读“”

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Macroeconomic Update: I remain significantly more bearish than consensus!

2023年10月5日    ·  5 minutes

Of late recessionary talk has cooled off. Jerome Powell and the Fed are no longer expecting a recession. The consensus is for the US to have a soft-landing allowing core … Continue reading “”

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冬天来了

2022年11月18日    ·  2 minutes

最近,我花了很多心思考虑宏观问题。 有些时候,宏观胜过微观。 … 继续阅读“冬天来了”

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WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture

2022年5月9日    ·  2 minutes

I had the pleasure of chatting with Harry Stebbings of 20VC about the current macro environment. In this far ranging conversation we discuss why a recession is the most likely … Continue reading “”

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伟大的未知

2022年3月11日    ·  3 minutes

一年前,我在《欢迎来到 “万物泡沫“ … 继续阅读“伟大的未知”

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The Moaning 20s

2021年4月20日    ·  9 minutes

By Matias Barbero “No more …. masks. Everything open too. School opens this week — Thursday! Did you ever? As if they couldn’t have waited till Monday!” With multiple vaccines … Continue reading “”

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欢迎来到 “万物泡沫”!

2021年2月9日    ·  3 minutes

市场狂热的警兆无处不在。 市盈率很高,而且还在攀升。 比特币 … 继续阅读“欢迎来到 “万物泡沫”!”

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The Impact of COVID19 on startups and the economy

2020年5月6日    ·  < 1 minute

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COVID-19 – 11 Fabrice Grinda – Survivre : le seul KPI du moment

2020年4月24日    ·  2 minutes

Discussion sympa avec Matthieu de Generation Do It Yourself sur COVID, l’economie, les startups Pour ce 11ème épisode dédié aux entrepreneurs face à la crise du covid-19 (et deuxième réalisé … Continue reading “”

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The global economy and its impact on startups in the time of COVID-19

2020年3月20日    ·  14 minutes

In February I suggested that the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the COVID-19 disease it causes may be the black swan that push the global economy into recession. I suggested that uncertainty … Continue reading “”

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COVID-19 may be the black swan that pushes the global economy into recession

2020年2月24日    ·  4 minutes

If there is one thing that businesses and individuals hate even more than bad news, it’s uncertainty. Even if you scour the literature and CDC releases (such as this latest … Continue reading “”

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Interview in Les Echos (in French): Tech will make the World a Better Place

2019年10月9日    ·  5 minutes

Two weeks ago, I had the pleasure of hosting a salon dinner with members of French Founders prior to giving a keynote on the state and future of technology. It … Continue reading “”

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We are lucky to be alive right now!

2017年2月20日    ·  < 1 minute

In these fraught political times, it’s good to take a step back from the day to day minutia. In the grand scheme of things, global quality of life has dramatically … Continue reading “”

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Technology and the Future of Work

2016年7月11日    ·  5 minutes

Technological progress continues unabated. The astonishing rate of growth has fueled heated debates about implications on the future of labor and the nature of work. A decade ago, few would … Continue reading “”

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Donald Trump: The Startup Disrupting the GOP Establishment

2016年3月30日    ·  3 minutes

by Fabrice Grinda and Mike Lloyd Many people have been amazed at the support that Donald Trump has been able to amass since he threw his red “Make America Great … Continue reading “”

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