{"id":31607,"date":"2012-07-13T09:41:20","date_gmt":"2012-07-13T09:41:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/nen-kinh-te-mot-thu-nghiem-tu-duy-lac-quan\/"},"modified":"2012-07-13T09:41:20","modified_gmt":"2012-07-13T09:41:20","slug":"nen-kinh-te-mot-thu-nghiem-tu-duy-lac-quan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/grinda.org\/vi\/nen-kinh-te-mot-thu-nghiem-tu-duy-lac-quan\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf: M\u1ed9t th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m t\u01b0 duy l\u1ea1c quan"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trong v\u00e0i n\u0103m qua, nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc trong t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ebft s\u1ee9c bi quan v\u1ec1 v\u1eadn m\u1ec7nh kinh t\u1ebf ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 trung h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, m\u1ed9t quan \u0111i\u1ec3m ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t l\u1ea1c quan c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i (xem S\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t h\u00f2a nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c ch\u1ebft ti\u1ec7t, t\u00f4i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u1ea1c quan bi quan).<\/a> ).<\/p>\n

T\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u01b0\u1ee3ng r\u1ea5t r\u00f5 nh\u1eefng k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c ho\u1eb7c ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 kh\u00f3 ch\u1ecbu trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 t\u1edbi. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, ch\u00fang l\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i. Tuy nhi\u00ean, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c n\u00f3i chuy\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 di\u1ec7t vong v\u00e0 u \u00e1m n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn t\u00f4i t\u1ef1 h\u1ecfi li\u1ec7u ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecf qua nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c hay kh\u00f4ng. Suy cho c\u00f9ng, c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng l\u00e2u, v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1979, ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft th\u00fac c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n v\u0103n minh ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i h\u1ee9ng ch\u1ecbu hai c\u00fa s\u1ed1c d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf. T\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7 lan tr\u00e0n v\u1edbi c\u1ea3 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ec1u tr\u00ean 10%. M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 n\u1eb1m d\u01b0\u1edbi \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Li\u00ean X\u00f4. Ch\u00e2u M\u1ef9 Latinh ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cai tr\u1ecb b\u1edfi c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i. Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1eabn c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 ngh\u00e8o sau nh\u1eefng b\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1ea3y v\u1ecdt c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i nh\u1ea3y v\u1ecdt v\u00e0 C\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng V\u0103n h\u00f3a. Ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea7n quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp \u1edf Iran. T\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u00f3 v\u1ebb \u1ea3m \u0111\u1ea1m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y.<\/p>\n

Kh\u00f4ng ai d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 ho\u00e0ng kim m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta s\u1eafp b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o, r\u1eb1ng 30 n\u0103m t\u1edbi s\u1ebd thay \u0111\u1ed5i s\u00e2u s\u1eafc b\u1ed9 m\u1eb7t nh\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i theo h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1eb9p h\u01a1n. Ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bm\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t do c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u. L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3m b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng. Ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thay th\u1ebf b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 Latinh. S\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 t\u1ea1o ra c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3i nhanh nh\u1ea5t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed nh\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i v\u1edbi h\u01a1n 400 tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi tho\u00e1t ngh\u00e8o ch\u1ec9 ri\u00eang \u1edf Trung Qu\u1ed1c. X\u00e9t v\u1ec1 tu\u1ed5i th\u1ecd, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u1eed vong \u1edf tr\u1ebb s\u01a1 sinh v\u00e0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o v\u1ec1 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng, ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd c\u00f3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0o t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ed1ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n s\u1ed1ng \u1edf T\u00e2y \u00c2u, M\u1ef9 hay Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n ng\u00e0y nay, ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. T\u00e2m tr\u1ea1ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean bu\u1ed3n b\u00e3 v\u00e0 vi\u1ec5n c\u1ea3nh d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 r\u1ea5t t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 tr\u00ean h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft m\u1ecdi m\u1eb7t tr\u1eadn.<\/p>\n

I.Ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang \u1edf \u0111\u00e2u v\u00e0 l\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e2y?<\/h4>\n

A.Hoa K\u1ef3<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1980, suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 do c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. Chi ph\u00ed v\u1ed1n t\u0103ng s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m chi ti\u00eau, \u0111\u1ea9y n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0o suy tho\u00e1i. Khi \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p gi\u1eefa ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng h\u01a1n s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng do ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i n\u00e0y th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 r\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c. Vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t li\u00ean t\u1ee5c k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf c\u00e1c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn Bretton Woods v\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n sang h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ti\u1ec1n Fiat \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p ba l\u1ea7n m\u1ee9c n\u1ee3 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n so v\u1edbi thu nh\u1eadp \u1edf Hoa K\u1ef3. S\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u1edd n\u1ee3 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u0103m 2008 khi gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, gi\u1ea3m trong khi n\u1ee3 ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 v\u1eabn \u1edf gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ban \u0111\u1ea7u, g\u00e2y ra suy tho\u00e1i b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi b\u00f3ng ma m\u1ea5t kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thanh to\u00e1n, c\u00e1c h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh v\u00e0 t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh qu\u00e1 cao t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch tr\u1ea3 n\u1ee3. Trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 m\u1ea5t \u0111i ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3: v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng m\u00e0 thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm nhu c\u1ea7u vay v\u1ed1n. Do \u0111\u00f3, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00e0 Fed th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean Greenspan \u2013 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng vay nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u00e0 \u0103n m\u1eebng s\u1ef1 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP nh\u1edd ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng \u2013 b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 khi c\u00e1c t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng vay n\u1ee3 nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n. V\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c tr\u1ea3 n\u1ee3, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n ai c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 vay th\u00eam n\u1eefa.<\/p>\n

Do thi\u1ebfu c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta c\u00f2n l\u00e2u m\u1edbi gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ecdi s\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. Trong su\u1ed1t 2000 n\u0103m qua, c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh k\u00e9o theo c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u1ee3 c\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n khi c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia qu\u1ed1c h\u1eefu h\u00f3a c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5. Trong khi duy tr\u00ec c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 t\u1ea1o t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh h\u1ecd – do \u0111\u00f3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u1ee3 c\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n. L\u1ea7n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ch\u01b0a gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y; ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y t\u1eeb b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n v\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p sang b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u00ec ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y cao h\u01a1n khi ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111i vay \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3.<\/p>\n

H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, s\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y ch\u00fang ta v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng c\u00f2n l\u00e2u m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft. Th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 li\u00ean bang r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng. T\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng m\u1ea5t vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i n\u00e0o k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn th\u1ee9 hai, c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng. C\u00f3 kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 1 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD \u0111ang ng\u1eadp trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thanh to\u00e1n trong v\u00e0i n\u0103m t\u1edbi. 25% h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb v\u1ed1n s\u1edf h\u1eefu \u00e2m trong nh\u00e0 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf s\u1ef1 d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, g\u00e2y ra t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf nhu c\u1ea7u vay v\u1ed1n.<\/p>\n

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Vi\u1ec7c t\u1ea1o t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u1eabn b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1. Thay v\u00ec d\u1ecdn d\u1eb9p b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 cho ph\u00e9p h\u1ecd b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u cho vay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i, v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng th\u00e2y ma bi\u1ebft \u0111i c\u1ea7n t\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe. V\u00ec c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ki\u1ebfm ti\u1ec1n b\u1eb1ng ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n m\u00e0 h\u1ecd tr\u1ea3 cho ch\u1ee7 t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n (ng\u00e0y nay v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00e0 0%) v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t h\u1ecd t\u00ednh cho c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n vay d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (v\u00ed d\u1ee5: th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p), m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho h\u1ecd. Tuy nhi\u00ean, h\u1ecd s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i m\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u1ee7 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n theo chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00ecn chung, ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 sai. Ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \u1edf m\u1ecdi c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 – li\u00ean bang, ti\u1ec3u bang v\u00e0 th\u00e0nh ph\u1ed1 v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m kinh t\u1ebf suy y\u1ebfu m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta.<\/p>\n

Trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 v\u1ed1n sai l\u1ea7m r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn, trong \u0111\u00f3 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn d\u00e0nh cho b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n. \u0110\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t, l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng t\u1ea1o ra c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3i v\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i. Cho r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n nh\u00e0 \u1edf l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n s\u00e2u xa c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng, ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Obama d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n th\u00f4ng qua s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p nh\u01b0 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng thu\u1ebf cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch Fed. \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1eef l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c.<\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p cho vi\u1ec7c bong b\u00f3ng v\u1ee1 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 th\u1ed5i l\u1ea1i bong b\u00f3ng \u0111\u00f3! Nh\u01b0 t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 vi\u1ebft \u1edf b\u00e0i tr\u01b0\u1edbc ( Whodunit?<\/a> ), c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn bong b\u00f3ng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n. M\u1ed9t trong s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c gi\u1eef l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t qu\u00e1 th\u1ea5p, qu\u00e1 l\u00e2u, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u r\u1ee7i ro khi theo \u0111u\u1ed5i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u00e0 g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n th\u1ed5i ph\u1ed3ng bong b\u00f3ng. C\u1ed1 g\u1eafng t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 v\u1ed1n kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u00e0 l\u00e0m tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn c\u00f3 \u0111\u1eb7c quy\u1ec1n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef nh\u01b0ng n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 in ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng c\u00e1c ngh\u0129a v\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. Tuy nhi\u00ean, b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 in theo c\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng! Vi\u1ec7c in \u1ea5n cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n do \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, nh\u01b0ng s\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra trong trung h\u1ea1n tr\u1eeb khi M\u1ef9 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. (Tr\u1edb tr\u00eau thay, \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi khi chuy\u1ec3n sang nh\u1eefng l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn thay th\u1ebf t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb an to\u00e0n nh\u1ea5t do c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf s\u00e2u s\u1eafc h\u01a1n \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng euro.)<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u00e0 h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra trong 20 n\u0103m qua, c\u00f3 l\u1ebd h\u1ecd s\u1ebd t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m s\u1ea1ch b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng nhanh h\u01a1n. H\u1ecd s\u1ebd suy ngh\u0129 k\u1ef9 h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 kho\u1ea3n chi ti\u00eau h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 l\u1ebd ra \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh s\u1edbm h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

B.Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u1edf quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u1ea5p b\u00e1ch h\u01a1n M\u1ef9. S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i l\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1. Nh\u01b0 t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft tr\u01b0\u1edbc ( Kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng Euro c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 do thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng?<\/a> ), m\u1ed9t li\u00ean minh ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 li\u00ean minh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, s\u1ef1 di chuy\u1ec3n lao \u0111\u1ed9ng xuy\u00ean qu\u1ed1c gia v\u00e0 \u00e1o kho\u00e1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh theo chu k\u1ef3 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng.<\/p>\n

V\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1990, khi nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i v\u1eadt l\u1ed9n \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u h\u00f3a, gi\u1edbi tinh hoa ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nh\u1eb1m th\u00f4ng qua Li\u00ean minh ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (EMU), v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n chung l\u00e0 trung t\u00e2m. C\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7p \u01b0\u1edbc ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c th\u00e0nh l\u1eadp EMU l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn ng\u1ea7m gi\u1eefa nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u00e1ng l\u1eadp n\u00f3. \u0110\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng theo \u0111\u1ed3ng Deutschemark c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd b\u1edfi Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u00e2u \u00c2u theo m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Bundesbank c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c. \u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n chung gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean kh\u00e1c nhau, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia tham gia s\u1ebd c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng h\u00e0i h\u00f2a c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t (nh\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 trong c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc c\u1ee7a Hi\u1ec7p \u01b0\u1edbc Maastricht v\u00e0 Hi\u1ec7p \u01b0\u1edbc \u1ed4n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng). N\u00f3i chung, c\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y s\u1ebd cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng chi ph\u00ed vay th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, ngang b\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi \u0110\u1ee9c. V\u00e0 trong m\u1ed9t chu k\u1ef3 l\u00e0nh m\u1ea1nh, chi ph\u00ed vay th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n nh\u01b0 v\u1eady s\u1ebd th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng – t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c b\u00ean k\u00fd k\u1ebft EMU y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u v\u00e0 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t v\u00e0nh \u0111ai t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh m\u00e0 h\u1ecd c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec v\u1ecb th\u1ebf th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean t\u1ed1t trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn n\u00e0y di\u1ec5n ra nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o? Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, chi ph\u00ed \u0111i vay qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a EMU \u0111\u00e3 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 B\u1ebfn Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng H\u1ea3i c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c. Ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn, chi ph\u00ed \u0111i vay th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u1edd t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u00e0ng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. Nh\u01b0ng thay v\u00ec s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh nh\u1eefng s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc EMU l\u1ea1i chi l\u1ee3i t\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 kh\u00e1c nhau. \u1ede T\u00e2y Ban Nha v\u00e0 Ireland, t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng d\u01b0 th\u1eeba di\u1ec5n ra d\u01b0\u1edbi h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c bong b\u00f3ng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea5t \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n. \u1ede Hy L\u1ea1p, B\u1ed3 \u0110\u00e0o Nha, \u00dd, B\u1ec9 v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p, h\u1ecd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 hoang ph\u00ed t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh khi\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng tr\u00ean GDP t\u0103ng cao. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean EMU n\u00e0o ngo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb \u0110\u1ee9c n\u1eafm b\u1eaft th\u1eddi c\u01a1 thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n nh\u1eb1m c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh (v\u00ed d\u1ee5: gi\u1ea3m l\u01b0\u01a1ng danh ngh\u0129a, k\u00e9o d\u00e0i th\u1eddi gian l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c, v.v.). Qu\u1ea3 th\u1ef1c, mang t\u00ednh bi\u1ec3u t\u01b0\u1ee3ng, h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i m\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111ang \u0111i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1eafm b\u1eaft t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n b\u1edfi quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2000 v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c t\u1ef1 b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu cho ch\u00ednh m\u00ecnh m\u1ed9t tu\u1ea7n l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c 35 gi\u1edd.<\/p>\n

Jim Rogers c\u00f3 nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng r\u1eb1ng bong b\u00f3ng lu\u00f4n t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i l\u00e2u h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngh\u0129. \u0110\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2008, m\u01b0\u1eddi n\u0103m sau khi \u0111\u1ed3ng Euro ra m\u1eaft, ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c b\u00ean k\u00fd k\u1ebft EMU b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u d\u1ea7n kh\u00e1c nhau khi, trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ngo\u1ea1i vi c\u1ee7a li\u00ean minh ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m g\u00ec \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ea1nh tranh kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, trong khi h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 y\u1ebfu \u0111i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. M\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u1eb7t quan tr\u1ecdng di\u1ec5n ra v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2009, v\u1edbi ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n r\u1eb1ng Hy L\u1ea1p \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e1o c\u00e1o sai s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea kinh t\u1ebf ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 che gi\u1ea5u m\u1ee9c vay m\u01b0\u1ee3n th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. Trong m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y, \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t h\u00e0ng n\u0103m c\u1ee7a Hy L\u1ea1p \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1eeb 6,7% l\u00ean 12,7% GDP v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u1ed5ng n\u1ee3 tr\u00ean GDP t\u1eeb 115% l\u00ean 127%. Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111\u00e3 d\u00e0n x\u1ebfp g\u00f3i c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 n\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean cho Hy L\u1ea1p v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2010, gia h\u1ea1n kho\u1ea3n vay 110 t\u1ef7 euro \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o r\u1eb1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y s\u1ebd th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p th\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3m th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 3% GDP v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2014. \u0110\u1ebfn m\u00f9a xu\u00e2n n\u0103m 2011, v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c Hy L\u1ea1p ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c b\u1ecf l\u1ee1 c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau th\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 t\u00ednh trong g\u00f3i c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2010 v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a Hy L\u1ea1p l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng l\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ch\u1ee9c tr\u00e1ch ch\u00e2u \u00c2u s\u1ebd c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n g\u00f3i c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 th\u1ee9 hai n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng s\u1ebd c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng \u1edf v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o ch\u00e2u \u00c2u th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2009 r\u1eb1ng Hy L\u1ea1p \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 khi\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 tr\u00ean GDP c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 50% c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o Hy L\u1ea1p \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n. kh\u00f4ng r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 n\u1eefa. Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00e2u \u00c2u coi v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thanh to\u00e1n l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 thanh kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o th\u00eam \u1ea3o t\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng qu\u1ed1c gia ch\u00e2u \u00c2u n\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e9p v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea9y chi\u1ebfc lon t\u1ee5c ng\u1eef \u0111i xa h\u01a1n m\u00e0 c\u00f2n khi\u1ebfn n\u00f3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 v\u00e0 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u v\u00f4 \u00edch khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o ch\u00e2u \u00c2u nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng Hy L\u1ea1p ph\u1ea3i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u l\u1ea1i kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. Tuy nhi\u00ean, s\u1ed1 n\u1ee3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00f3a qu\u00e1 \u00edt, v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n kh\u00f4ng gi\u00fap \u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u00ec cho Hy L\u1ea1p m\u00e0 c\u00f2n ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 \u1ea3o t\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng qu\u1ed1c gia ch\u00e2u \u00c2u n\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e9p v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3. Gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng \u1edf M\u1ef9 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u khi \u1ea3o t\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m b\u1ecb tan v\u1ee1, s\u1ef1 tan v\u1ee1 c\u1ee7a \u1ea3o t\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ch\u00e2u \u00c2u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 \u0111\u00e3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u1eeb Hy L\u1ea1p v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u201ctr\u00f4ng\u201d gi\u1ed1ng n\u00f3 nh\u1ea5t, B\u1ed3 \u0110\u00e0o Nha v\u00e0 Ireland, \u0111\u1ebfn T\u00e2y Ban Nha v\u00e0 \u00dd.<\/p>\n

V\u00e0o Ch\u1ee7 nh\u1eadt, ng\u00e0y 10 th\u00e1ng 7 n\u0103m 2011, t\u1edd Financial Times \u0111\u01b0a tin r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, trong m\u1ed9t \u0111o\u00e0n xe \u0111i v\u00f2ng quanh, \u0111\u00e3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi vi\u1ec7c v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 c\u00f3 ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc \u1edf Hy L\u1ea1p. Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef c\u00e1c ngh\u0129a v\u1ee5 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Hy L\u1ea1p trong khu v\u1ef1c t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u201cc\u1eaft t\u00f3c\u201d \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a g\u00f3i c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 th\u1ee9 hai m\u00e0 ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n ch\u00e2u \u00c2u s\u1ebd m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng cho Hy L\u1ea1p. Trong m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i, l\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o ng\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a EMU \u2013 r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean n\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e9p v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 \u2013 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh l\u00e0 sai.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f3ng \u0111\u1ea1i. N\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro cho t\u1eebng qu\u1ed1c gia thu\u1ed9c khu v\u1ef1c Eurozone v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n \u00edt nh\u1ea5t tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc EMU (\u201c\u00edt nh\u1ea5t\u201d v\u00ec c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ng\u00e0y nay m\u1eafc n\u1ee3 nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3). S\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda Bund \u0110\u1ee9c v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 cho ph\u00e9p t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean EMU kh\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng chi ph\u00ed vay th\u1ea5p nh\u01b0 v\u1eady trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1ea5t thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i b\u1ecb h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u1eddi gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch cho l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a \u00dd, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 giao d\u1ecbch trong ph\u1ea1m vi \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh trong su\u1ed1t c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ch\u00e2u \u00c2u b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 tr\u00ean GDP c\u1ee7a \u00dd l\u00e0 120%, \u0111\u1ed9t nhi\u00ean gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh \u2013 v\u1edbi chi ph\u00ed vay 10 n\u0103m v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 6% \u2013 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 11 th\u00e1ng 7 n\u0103m 2011, ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean sau c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a Financial Times. Trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch ECB Trichet \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch tr\u00e1nh k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 m\u00e0 FT \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e1o c\u00e1o, nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean Eurozone n\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e9p v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 \u201cc\u00f3 ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc\u201d. \u00d4ng \u0111\u00e3 thua trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn v\u1edbi Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Merkel. Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00f9i.<\/p>\n

Th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f4ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. Trong ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 tho\u00e1t hi\u1ec3m c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1, m\u00e0 thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng m\u00e0 George Soros g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201cv\u00f2ng xo\u00e1y t\u1eed th\u1ea7n\u201d. V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft, n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi v\u00f2ng xo\u00e1y s\u1ed1 h\u1ecdc ch\u1ebft ch\u00f3c b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch duy tr\u00ec th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n li\u00ean t\u1ee5c trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u00e1nh kh\u00f3e m\u00e0 ch\u01b0a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia m\u1eafc n\u1ee3 s\u00e2u s\u1eafc n\u00e0o th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trong th\u1eddi hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i. Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng qu\u00e1 c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u00edt qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m n\u00f3 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch nghi\u00eam t\u00fac, bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p th\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ebfn qu\u00e1 mu\u1ed9n, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t v\u00e0 n\u1ee3 cao h\u01a1n do t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m chi ti\u00eau. C\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3, t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u ho\u1eb7c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t – m\u1ed9t d\u1ea1ng v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ng\u1ee5y trang.<\/p>\n

\u00dd l\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn th\u1ee9 b\u1ea3y th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 th\u1ee9 ba trong khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng Euro, sau \u0110\u1ee9c v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p. Nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng tr\u00ean GDP hi\u1ec7n \u1edf m\u1ee9c 120%. Trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea1t trung b\u00ecnh d\u01b0\u1edbi 1% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m trong khi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP danh ngh\u0129a \u0111\u1ea1t trung b\u00ecnh 2,9% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m. Ngo\u00e0i h\u00e0ng da cao c\u1ea5p, th\u1eddi trang cao c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 \u1ea9m th\u1ef1c, \u00dd c\u00f2n n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c li\u00ean \u0111o\u00e0n lao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ea1nh tranh v\u1edbi Anh. tr\u01b0\u1edbc Thatcher v\u00e0 v\u00ec m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n v\u0103n h\u00f3a tr\u1ed1n thu\u1ebf ngang b\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi Hy L\u1ea1p. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c n\u1ee3, h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u nh\u01b0 \u00dd, th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng g\u1ea7n Bund \u0110\u1ee9c tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ngu\u1ed3n t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1edf m\u1ee9c 5 – 6%.<\/p>\n

H\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 thanh kho\u1ea3n t\u1eeb ECB ho\u1eb7c Qu\u1ef9 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (EFSF) c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cung c\u1ea5p H\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ban nh\u1ea1c, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 kh\u1eafc ph\u1ee5c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 m\u1ea5u ch\u1ed1t l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thanh to\u00e1n. \u00dd hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111i vay d\u01b0\u1edbi chu\u1ea9n ho\u1eb7c Alt-A, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 vay m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n vay l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea3 n\u1ed5i, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u00e0 h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 chi tr\u1ea3 \u1edf m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u201cnh\u1eafc nh\u1edf\u201d trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0 gi\u00e1 nh\u00e0 \u0111ang t\u0103ng nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 chi tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n. kho\u1ea3n vay \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u0103n nh\u00e0 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111ang b\u1ecb ch\u00ecm trong n\u01b0\u1edbc. Qu\u1ea3 bom n\u1ee3 t\u00edch t\u1eafc n\u00e0y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 li\u00ean quan c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh cho ph\u00e9p v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 c\u00f3 ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc \u1edf Hy L\u1ea1p nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u: b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch l\u00e0m b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 huy\u1ec1n tho\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 \u1edf EMU v\u00e0 bu\u1ed9c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i r\u1ee7i ro t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng qu\u1ed1c gia tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y Vi\u1ec7c \u201c\u0111\u1ec3 Hy L\u1ea1p ra \u0111i\u201d \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed \u0111i vay c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ngo\u1ea1i vi ch\u00e2u \u00c2u kh\u00e1c, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u00dd, l\u00ean m\u1ee9c khi\u1ebfn h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1ee3. B\u1edfi v\u00ec sau khi Hy L\u1ea1p v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3, c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ngo\u1ea1i vi c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi chi ph\u00ed t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, n\u00ean vi\u1ec7c v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 ho\u1eb7c t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u1ecd.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn ch\u1eafp v\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n nay \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng n\u1ed7i \u0111au v\u00e0 khi\u1ebfn n\u00f3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ch\u00ed ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m nh\u1eefng g\u00ec c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft. Ngo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed Hy L\u1ea1p g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng nhi\u1ec7m nh\u01b0 Sarkozy \u0111\u00e3 nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n b\u1ecb b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu b\u00e3i nhi\u1ec7m. C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3ng d\u00e2n t\u00fay ch\u1ed1ng ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111ang gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c phi\u1ebfu b\u1ea7u tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. C\u00f3 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed5i d\u1eady \u1edf Hy L\u1ea1p v\u00e0 \u00dd ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng ngay c\u1ea3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh th\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng nghi\u00eam kh\u1eafc n\u00e0o c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u1ea1c quan v\u1ec1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, l\u1ecbch s\u1eed n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t quan \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ed1i l\u1eadp r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. V\u00e0o nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1790, sau Chi\u1ebfn tranh C\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9, B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh Alexander Hamilton \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch m\u1ec7t m\u1ecfi tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Li\u00ean bang nh\u1eb1m gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 chi\u1ebfn tranh kh\u00f4ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng qu\u1ed1c gia. \u0110\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Hamilton \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb H\u1ea1 vi\u1ec7n b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu b\u00e1c b\u1ecf n\u0103m l\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng \u00f4ng th\u1eafng th\u1ebf. Ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra s\u1ef1 t\u00e0n ph\u00e1 nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ed1n ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p v\u00e0 c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y cao ng\u00e0y nay. Hai th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 sau, m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi k\u1ebf nhi\u1ec7m Hamilton, B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh Hank Paulson, ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea5u tranh b\u1ea5p b\u00eanh t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 trong vi\u1ec7c thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i ph\u00ea chu\u1ea9n g\u00f3i c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 kh\u1ea9n c\u1ea5p TARP cho h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh Hoa K\u1ef3 trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ea1i suy tho\u00e1i. \u00cdt ng\u01b0\u1eddi nh\u1edb l\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a Paulson trong l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0a ra y\u00eau c\u1ea7u. N\u00f3 khi\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m th\u00eam 7% v\u00e0 l\u1eddi c\u1ea7u xin ri\u00eang th\u1ee9 hai tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb Paulson t\u1edbi Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch H\u1ea1 vi\u1ec7n Nancy Pelosi, tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i th\u00f4ng qua TARP. Nh\u1eefng t\u00ecnh ti\u1ebft n\u00e0y n\u00eau b\u1eadt m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 kh\u00f3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n chuy\u1ec3n giao t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u1edbn ngay c\u1ea3 \u1edf m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 chung m\u1ed9t ch\u00ednh th\u1ec3, m\u1ed9t kho b\u1ea1c chung v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef chung – m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 kh\u1ea9u hi\u1ec7u xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n l\u00e0 E Pluribus Unum, Out c\u1ee7a Nhi\u1ec1u Ng\u01b0\u1eddi.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 E Pluribus Unum. EMU bao g\u1ed3m 17 qu\u1ed1c gia-nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ch\u00ednh th\u1ec3 chung, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 kho b\u1ea1c chung v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef chung duy nh\u1ea5t. Trong h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft s\u00e1u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 qua, c\u00e1c d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c sinh s\u1ed1ng \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111\u00e3 tham gia v\u00e0o c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh n\u00e0y, th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i y\u00ean b\u00ecnh sau Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn th\u1ee9 hai \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 chu\u1ea9n m\u1ef1c. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb t\u1eeb Napol\u00e9on \u0111\u1ebfn Hitler v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec1u m\u01a1 \u01b0\u1edbc th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t ch\u00e2u \u00c2u theo t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn n\u00e0y hay t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn kh\u00e1c. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1nh cu\u1ed9c r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi nh\u01b0 Jean-Claude Trichet v\u00e0 Angela Merkel s\u1ebd th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng \u1edf n\u01a1i nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i. C\u00e1c c\u1eed tri tr\u00ean l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n

V\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y, vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0m cho v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u1ee3 n\u1ea7n tr\u1edf n\u00ean t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n. Nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a Hy L\u1ea1p ch\u1ee9ng minh, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia B\u1eafc \u00c2u (d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00e0 \u0110\u1ee9c), ECB v\u00e0 IMF \u0111\u1ec1u nh\u1ea5t quy\u1ebft y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p th\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh nghi\u00eam kh\u1eafc v\u00e0 ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n ti\u00ean quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00fap PIIG ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3. Thu\u1ed1c ch\u1ed1ng Keynes n\u00e0y h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u1ee3 ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n n\u00f3. L\u00fd do r\u1ea5t \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n: t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf PIIG hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang \u1edf d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u201ct\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7\u201d, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng t\u1ea1o ra th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t l\u1edbn h\u01a1n v\u00ec t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m chi ti\u00eau. \u0110\u1ec3 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, n\u00f3 c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ngo\u1ea1i vi c\u1ee7a Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111ang t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 danh ngh\u0129a ~4 \u2013 5% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m. T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady s\u1ebd cung c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ee7 l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec7m \u0111\u1ec3 cho ph\u00e9p c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m chi ti\u00eau di\u1ec5n ra m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng danh ngh\u0129a \u1edf c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp l\u00e0 ngang b\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u00e2m. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 PIIG c\u1ea7n trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 k\u00edch th\u00edch \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ec3 n\u00e2ng cao kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ea1nh tranh v\u00e0 gi\u00fap duy tr\u00ec t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng. Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t l\u00ean h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd mang l\u1ea1i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam s\u1ef1 th\u00f9 \u0111\u1ecbch gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c c\u1eed tri \u1edf ph\u00eda nam v\u00e0 ph\u00eda b\u1eafc ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. Ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 gi\u1ea3i th\u1ec3 trung t\u00e2m ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. S\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3ng c\u1ef1c t\u1ea3 nh\u01b0 Syriza v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3ng c\u1ef1c h\u1eefu nh\u01b0 M\u1eb7t tr\u1eadn Qu\u1ed1c gia th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u1ebft li\u1ec5u ch\u00e2u \u00c2u nh\u01b0 ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebft. Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng kh\u00e1c n\u1ebfu Monti th\u1ea5t th\u1ee7 \u1edf \u00dd m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ai c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay th\u1ebf \u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u201cgi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p\u201d n\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n g\u1ed1c r\u1ec5 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. Albert Einstein \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t \u201cb\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 b\u1eb1ng ki\u1ec3u suy ngh\u0129 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra n\u00f3\u201d. V\u1ec1 c\u0103n b\u1ea3n, Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i ba v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u kinh t\u1ebf: (a) qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng, (b) thi\u1ebfu kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ea1nh tranh \u1edf nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia ngo\u1ea1i vi c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i, v\u00e0 (c) th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf k\u00e9m ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u1ed1i \u01b0u c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t li\u00ean minh ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u201cgi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p\u201d n\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gia ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng l\u1edbn n\u00f3i \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y. Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec1u minh h\u1ecda cho ki\u1ec3u suy ngh\u0129 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ngay t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u. M\u1edf r\u1ed9ng EFSF? \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng gi\u00fap c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 g\u1ed1c r\u1ec5 v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m ch\u00fang tr\u1edf n\u00ean t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n n\u1ebfu qu\u1ef9 c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 b\u1ed5 sung v\u00e0o c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a PIIG v\u00e0\/ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 n\u1ee3 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. \u00c1p d\u1ee5ng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00e2u \u00c2u? \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u0169ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u1edbi c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 g\u1ed1c r\u1ec5, v\u00e0 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 l\u00e0m cho k\u1ebft c\u1ee5c cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch l\u00e2y lan n\u1ee3 sang c\u00e1c b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, \u0110\u1ee9c v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p. Th\u1ef1c thi th\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c? \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn ch\u00fang ta c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y gi\u1ed1ng v\u1edbi t\u1ee5c l\u1ec7 th\u1eddi Trung C\u1ed5 l\u00e0 cho b\u1ec7nh nh\u00e2n ch\u1ea3y m\u00e1u v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i x\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec3 \u201clo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf\u201d b\u1ec7nh t\u1eadt c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft t\u1eadn g\u1ed1c r\u1ec5 \u2013 v\u00ed d\u1ee5, ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Brady ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, x\u00f3a n\u1ee3, tham gia v\u00e0o c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed1i tho\u1ea1i v\u1edbi c\u1eed tri \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u \u2013 th\u00ec cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng s\u1ebd v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp di\u1ec5n.<\/p>\n

C. H\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c Hy L\u1ea1p r\u1eddi kh\u1ecfi khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng euro c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi nghi ng\u1edd<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu Hy L\u1ea1p r\u1eddi kh\u1ecfi khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng euro v\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed3ng drachma, \u0111\u1ed3ng drachma c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m 50% sau khi \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 GDP danh ngh\u0129a c\u1ee7a Hy L\u1ea1p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1. C\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ty Hy L\u1ea1p c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a v\u1ee5 b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng euro nh\u01b0ng doanh thu b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng drachma s\u1ebd v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3. Do m\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 qua l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng n\u00e0o c\u00f3 ch\u00fat n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a Hy L\u1ea1p \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1edbm b\u1ecb c\u1eaft kh\u1ecfi t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, t\u1ea1o ra t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng \u0111\u00f3ng b\u0103ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra sau Lehman Brothers n\u0103m 2008 – g\u1ea5p 10 l\u1ea7n v\u00ec m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111ang r\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu. \u0110\u00e3 n\u00e9m m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng v\u1eeba qua, k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 b\u1ed3n r\u1eeda b\u00e1t, h\u1ecd ch\u1eb3ng th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u00ec nhi\u1ec1u! Ch\u1ec9 ri\u00eang vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00f3ng b\u0103ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y B\u1ed3 \u0110\u00e0o Nha, T\u00e2y Ban Nha, \u00dd v\u00e0 Hy L\u1ea1p v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3. Sau \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa, m\u1ed9t ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 khi m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi r\u00fat \u0111\u1ed3ng euro ra kh\u1ecfi ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh nguy c\u01a1 b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3 ch\u00ednh c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ra \u0111i c\u1ee7a Hy L\u1ea1p ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng \u0111\u00f3ng b\u0103ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ea1o ra hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng domino \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi B\u1ed3 \u0110\u00e0o Nha, T\u00e2y Ban Nha, \u00dd, v.v. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 x\u1ea3y ra, ECB s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i cung c\u1ea5p thanh kho\u1ea3n kh\u00f4ng gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u00e0 d\u1ee9t kho\u00e1t cho c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t th\u00e1o ch\u1ea1y c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n

C\u0169ng ch\u01b0a r\u00f5 vi\u1ec7c Hy L\u1ea1p r\u00fat lui c\u00f3 mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i \u00edch l\u00e2u d\u00e0i cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi Hy L\u1ea1p hay kh\u00f4ng. N\u1ebfu \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u v\u00e0 thu\u1ebf, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ea1nh tranh m\u1edbi s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y v\u00e0o con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u1edf Hy L\u1ea1p, k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra h\u01a1n l\u00e0 l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 s\u1ebd b\u1ecb th\u1ed5i ph\u1ed3ng l\u00ean. Sau m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i n\u0103m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP danh ngh\u0129a, Hy L\u1ea1p l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa th\u1ea5y m\u00ecnh k\u00e9m c\u1ea1nh tranh, nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 l\u1ebd v\u1edbi GDP th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 20% so v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n nay.<\/p>\n

D. Nh\u1eefng c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc kh\u00e1c: Nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7, T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng To\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 \u1ed4n \u0111\u1ecbnh<\/strong>
\nT\u1ec7 h\u01a1n n\u1eefa, ngo\u00e0i kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7 v\u00e0 suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf m\u00e0 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t do qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh gi\u1ea3m n\u1ee3, ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y c\u00f2n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 phi kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n

1. Nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m kinh t\u1ebf t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y so v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang khi\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1edf M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 T\u00e2y \u00c2u tin r\u1eb1ng \u201c\u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn Washington\u201d n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thay th\u1ebf b\u1eb1ng \u201c\u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn B\u1eafc Kinh\u201d.<\/p>\n

Thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef \u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn Washington \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc John Williamson \u0111\u1eb7t ra v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1989 \u0111\u1ec3 m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 m\u01b0\u1eddi quy \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 m\u00e0 \u00f4ng coi l\u00e0 c\u1ea5u th\u00e0nh n\u00ean g\u00f3i c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch \u201cti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n\u201d \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u00f3 tr\u1ee5 s\u1edf t\u1ea1i Washington, DC th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y cho c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111ang g\u1eb7p kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng. Qu\u1ef9 Ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IMF), Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh Hoa K\u1ef3. C\u00e1c quy \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch trong c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c nh\u01b0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4, m\u1edf c\u1eeda kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u1ea3 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, v\u00e0 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf trong n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2012 tr\u00ean t\u1ea1p ch\u00ed Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch Ch\u00e2u \u00c1, Williamson m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 \u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn B\u1eafc Kinh bao g\u1ed3m n\u0103m \u0111i\u1ec3m:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. C\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch gia t\u0103ng (ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn Big Bang)<\/li>\n
  2. \u0110\u1ed5i m\u1edbi v\u00e0 th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m<\/li>\n
  3. Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng<\/li>\n
  4. Ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc (tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a ho\u1eb7c Ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ef1 do)<\/li>\n
  5. Ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i (tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 ho\u1eb7c Chuy\u00ean ch\u1ebf).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    N\u00f3i chung, \u00fd ngh\u0129a cho r\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n \u0111ang gi\u1ebft ch\u1ebft n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tin c\u1eady, nh\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c minh h\u1ecda b\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1c cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch nh\u01b0 Ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a si\u00eau t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n: S\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a kinh doanh, d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a Robert Reich.<\/p>\n

    2. Nguy c\u01a1 h\u1ea1 c\u00e1nh c\u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    B\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb l\u00e2u d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, cho \u0111\u1ebfn nay n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i v\u1eabn l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m s\u00e1ng tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi gi\u00fap th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi l\u00ean 5,3% trong n\u0103m 2010 v\u00e0 3,9% trong n\u0103m 2011. M\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m nh\u1ecf c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 Nouriel Roubini, \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3i h\u1ea1 c\u00e1nh c\u1ee9ng, \u0111e d\u1ecda \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u00f2n s\u00f3t l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

    L\u1eadp lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a bong b\u00f3ng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n \u1edf Trung Qu\u1ed1c: N\u0103m 2009, trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 tung ra h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la – h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n t\u1ec7 – \u0111\u1ec3 k\u00edch th\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf nh\u1eb1m gi\u1eef cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 \u0111ang trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 suy tho\u00e1i. H\u00e0ng t\u1ef7 USD \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc, t\u1eeb \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng s\u00e1 \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c t\u00f2a nh\u00e0 m\u1edbi. T\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi gi\u00e0u \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u00e0ng t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0o b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n c\u1ea5t gi\u1eef gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ecb h\u00f3a. Ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ebfn 50% d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 s\u1ed1ng \u1edf c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ed1 v\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ecb h\u00f3a v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c di\u1ec5n ra, nh\u01b0ng t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng theo k\u1ecbp s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, t\u1ea1o ra t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng d\u01b0 th\u1eeba nh\u00e0 \u1edf. Nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 nguy hi\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a bong b\u00f3ng th\u1ef1c, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch nh\u1eb1m h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 th\u00eam.<\/p>\n

    Ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda l\u1edbn h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u sau s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a bong b\u00f3ng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n. S\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mong \u0111\u1ee3i t\u1eeb ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m sang ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, v\u1ed1n l\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf cho h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, \u0111ang kh\u00f4ng x\u1ea3y ra.<\/p>\n

    Nh\u00ecn chung, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e1ng lo ng\u1ea1i:<\/p>\n