{"id":31555,"date":"2022-03-11T07:10:24","date_gmt":"2022-03-11T07:10:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fabricegrinda.com\/dieu-vi-dai-chua-biet\/"},"modified":"2024-05-20T05:16:39","modified_gmt":"2024-05-20T05:16:39","slug":"dieu-vi-dai-chua-biet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/grinda.org\/vi\/dieu-vi-dai-chua-biet\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0110i\u1ec1u v\u0129 \u0111\u1ea1i ch\u01b0a bi\u1ebft"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

M\u1ed9t n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, trong Ch\u00e0o m\u1eebng \u0111\u1ebfn v\u1edbi bong b\u00f3ng m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9<\/a> , t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 l\u1ecfng l\u1ebbo \u0111ang th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y bong b\u00f3ng \u1edf m\u1ecdi lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bs\u1ef1 s\u1ee7i b\u1ecdt trong c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu, ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed, b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, \u0111\u1ea5t \u0111ai, h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu v\u1edbi bong b\u00f3ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n trong SPAC. Nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh vi b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng do b\u00e1n l\u1ebb v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec1u cho th\u1ea5y ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111ang \u1edf ho\u1eb7c g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ec9nh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n\n

T\u1ea1i FJ Labs, t\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean ch\u00fang t\u00f4i l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i l\u1edbn t\u1eeb bong b\u00f3ng v\u00ec t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u1ec1u t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c s\u00e2u s\u1eafc r\u1eb1ng m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng m\u00ecnh l\u00e0m t\u1ed1t vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u0169ng \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea7y b\u1ecdt. Trong m\u1ed9t bong b\u00f3ng, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u1ec1u tr\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng thi\u00ean t\u00e0i<\/strong> . Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 ghi nh\u1edb nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0 b\u00e1n s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ph\u1ee5 \u1edf m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i v\u00ec ch\u00fang t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng tin v\u00e0o ch\u00fang, m\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, m\u00e0 ch\u00fang th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng v\u1ecb th\u1ebf duy nh\u1ea5t m\u00e0 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 thanh kho\u1ea3n. Ngo\u00e0i ra, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i th\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1n 50% v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n\n

K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed. 40% c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a Nasdaq gi\u1ea3m h\u01a1n 50% t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e1y \u1edf m\u1ecdi l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7.<\/p>\n

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B\u1ed9i s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e3 n\u00e9n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ea1i ch\u00fang. B\u1ed9i s\u1ed1 SaaS hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

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H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed c\u0169ng gi\u1ea3m h\u01a1n 50%.<\/p>\n

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\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1eb7t ra c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi ch\u00fang ta n\u00ean l\u00e0m g\u00ec b\u00e2y gi\u1edd. Trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd \u0111i \u0111\u00e2u t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y t\u00f4i c\u00f3 suy ngh\u0129 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u00e0 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n. V\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1990, t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n c\u00e1c b\u00e0i b\u00e1o gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch r\u1eb1ng ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang \u1edf trong m\u1ed9t bong b\u00f3ng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 r\u1eb1ng m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 n\u00f3 s\u1ebd v\u1ee1 nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 c\u0169ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u1eb7t n\u1ec1n m\u00f3ng cho s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1eafp t\u1edbi. V\u00e0o gi\u1eefa nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 2000, t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn tr\u00ean ch\u00ednh blog n\u00e0y r\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00ean thu\u00ea thay v\u00ec mua<\/a> khi gi\u00e1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n t\u0103ng cao<\/a> . Nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn \u1edf tr\u00ean, m\u1ed9t n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao. B\u00e2y gi\u1edd t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn h\u1ee3p l\u00fd v\u1ec1 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i, t\u1ea1i sao ch\u00fang s\u1ebd \u0111i ngang v\u00e0 t\u1ea1i sao ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u1eb7p nhi\u1ec1u b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n

M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u0129 m\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

A. Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ea1c quan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

T\u00f4i mu\u1ed1n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ea1c quan v\u00ec trong th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m di\u1ec7t vong v\u00e0 u \u00e1m n\u00e0y h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ai tin v\u00e0o \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng t\u0103ng 7,9% trong 12 th\u00e1ng t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 2 n\u0103m 2022, m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 12 th\u00e1ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong 40 n\u0103m. \u0110\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t phi m\u00e3, Fed d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bs\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 5 l\u1ea7n trong n\u0103m nay v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u00edch l\u0169y \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 1,5%. Trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t nhanh ch\u00f3ng c\u1ee7a Fed \u0111\u1ec1u d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

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L\u00fd do khi\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea1i ch\u00fang quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro nh\u01b0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed, l\u00e0 do l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng theo d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn. L\u00fd do khi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n l\u00e0 do t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb h\u01a1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai xa. Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i r\u00f2ng c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n

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H\u00e3y t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty kh\u1edfi nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bs\u1ebd t\u1ea1o ra d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n 1 t\u1ef7 USD sau 10 n\u0103m. N\u1ebfu t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u l\u00e0 0% th\u00ec d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0m t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty l\u00ean 1 t\u1ef7 USD. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u l\u00e0 10% th\u00ec 1 t\u1ef7 USD d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 trong 10 n\u0103m t\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty th\u00eam 385 tri\u1ec7u USD. Khi ch\u00fang ta b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u1edf m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t r\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p, kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1edbn v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u0169ng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty m\u00e0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ebfn trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i xa.<\/p>\n\n

Gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gia t\u0103ng l\u00e0 do s\u1ef1 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng do nhu c\u1ea7u h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 do nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 gi\u1ea3m do ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111i du l\u1ecbch, \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u00e0 h\u00e0ng, xem phim, v.v. n\u1eefa.<\/p>\n

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V\u1edbi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 thu nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea3 d\u1ee5ng b\u1ed5 sung n\u00e0y trong tay, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng \u0111\u00e3 chuy\u1ec3n sang mua s\u1eafm tr\u1ef1c tuy\u1ebfn. H\u00f3a ra, c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng quy m\u00f4 nhanh nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. S\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e0u container tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng container s\u1eb5n c\u00f3, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qua c\u00e1c c\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta, s\u1ef1 s\u1eb5n c\u00f3 c\u1ee7a xe t\u1ea3i v\u00e0 t\u00e0i x\u1ebf xe t\u1ea3i, s\u1ef1 s\u1eb5n c\u00f3 c\u1ee7a khung g\u1ea7m (xe mo\u00f3c ch\u1edf container \u0111i kh\u1eafp n\u01a1i), t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u b\u1ecb qu\u00e1 t\u1ea3i khi\u1ebfn h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng b\u1ecb t\u1eafc ngh\u1ebdn. \u0110\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu n\u00e0y ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng linh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ee7 linh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn n\u01a1i c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft.<\/p>\n\n

Tr\u00ean h\u1ebft, m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi h\u1eadu c\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1ec1 kh\u00f4ng gian \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd v\u00e0 v\u1eadt l\u00fd so v\u1edbi m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi b\u00e1n l\u1ebb truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng. Ch\u00fang ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n v\u00ec b\u1ea1n \u0111ang l\u01b0u tr\u1eef kho\u1ea3ng kh\u00f4ng qu\u1ea3ng c\u00e1o c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0o b\u1ed9 nh\u1edb \u0111\u1ec7m c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u1ec3 g\u1ea7n g\u0169i nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng thay v\u00ec \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 trong trung t\u00e2m ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i \u1edf m\u1ed9t trung t\u00e2m duy nh\u1ea5t. C\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1eb7t kho h\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9, khi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y tr\u1edf n\u00ean ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n theo c\u1ea5p s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 c\u00e0ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua h\u00e0ng tr\u1ef1c tuy\u1ebfn th\u00ec c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y c\u00e0ng b\u1ecb qu\u00e1 t\u1ea3i.<\/p>\n

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\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00e0ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n do cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u1edf Ukraine \u0111ang \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng cao v\u00e0 l\u00e0m gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u00eam chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng.<\/p>\n\n

B\u00e2y gi\u1edd h\u00e3y \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00f4i n\u00f3i r\u00f5 m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u1ea1c quan c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 di\u1ec5n ra nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o. S\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i mua h\u00e0ng t\u1eeb d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 sang h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t v\u1ec1 COVID.<\/p>\n

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H\u00e3y t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u01b0\u1ee3ng r\u1eb1ng b\u00e2y gi\u1edd t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 m\u1eafc b\u1ec7nh COVID do Omnicron v\u00e0\/ho\u1eb7c b\u1ecb ti\u00eam v\u1eafc xin g\u1ea5p ba l\u1ea7n, th\u00ec cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng th\u00ec COVID \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh b\u1ec7nh d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang t\u00f4i h\u1ecdc c\u00e1ch s\u1ed1ng chung v\u1edbi n\u00f3 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t m\u1ecdi h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, theo s\u1ef1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a \u0110an M\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 V\u01b0\u01a1ng qu\u1ed1c Anh. Ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd cho ph\u00e9p chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng th\u00f4ng tho\u00e1ng v\u00e0 c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1ea3m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf khi chi ph\u00ed h\u1eadu c\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/p>\n\n

Tr\u00ean h\u1ebft, vi\u1ec7c k\u1ebft th\u00fac c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t ki\u1ec3m tra c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 COVID s\u1ebd lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nhu c\u1ea7u d\u01b0 th\u1eeba \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u01a1m v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. N\u1ebfu \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y x\u1ea3y ra \u0111\u1ee7 nhanh \u0111\u1ec3 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f4ng c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u t\u0103ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng 7% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m kh\u00f4ng tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh th\u00f4ng l\u1ec7, th\u00ec \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi, cho ph\u00e9p Fed t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n\n

Ch\u00fang ta c\u0169ng \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n cao nh\u1ea5t khi cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u1edf Ukraine t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e2m l\u00fd. N\u1ebfu n\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft trong nh\u1eefng tu\u1ea7n ho\u1eb7c th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi, n\u00f3 s\u1ebd lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111ang \u0111\u00e8 n\u1eb7ng l\u00ean n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. T\u00f4i c\u0169ng hy v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n m\u00e0 Putin \u0111ang g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i \u1edf Ukraine v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh ph\u1ea3i suy ngh\u0129 l\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u1eb7c s\u00e1p nh\u1eadp \u0110\u00e0i Loan.<\/p>\n\n

N\u1ebfu l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ebd c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i. C\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty \u0111ang \u1edf trong t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh t\u1ed1t so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 kh\u00e1c khi cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra v\u1ec1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t v\u00e0 n\u1ee3 n\u1ea7n. Ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang c\u00f3 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p \u1edf M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 3,8%. Th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111ang gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh do Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i kh\u00f4ng xem x\u00e9t th\u00eam c\u00e1c g\u00f3i c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u00e1c g\u00f3i c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng v\u00e0 x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i b\u1ed5 sung s\u1ebd nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c g\u00f3i c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n

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V\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 c\u0169ng s\u1ebd gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng gi\u1ea3m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 mang l\u1ea1i tr\u1ea3i nghi\u1ec7m t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng v\u1edbi chi ph\u00ed th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n. COVID \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 nhanh ch\u00f3ng trong c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7: ch\u0103m s\u00f3c s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe, gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c, B2B v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u1ea3 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 c\u00f4ng. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc nh\u01b0 Tyler Cowen, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 \u201c\u0110\u1ea1i tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7\u201d hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u1edd c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7.<\/p>\n\n

Trong qu\u00fd 4 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 cho r\u1eb1ng x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t x\u1ea3y ra k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n l\u1ea1c quan l\u00e0 50%. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 33%, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfc l\u00e0 n\u00f3 \u0111ang gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n theo ng\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n

B. Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ea1c quan \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ph\u1ea3i t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi v\u00e0 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi cho ph\u00e9p Fed t\u0103ng \u00edt h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn. V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t duy tr\u00ec tr\u00ean xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u00e0ng l\u00e2u (v\u00ed d\u1ee5 2 – 2,5%) th\u00ec k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00e0ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1. Thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh m\u1ed7i gi\u1edd c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh theo m\u00f9a, \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 5,1% trong th\u00e1ng 2 so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y v\u1eabn th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng 7% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf m\u1ee9c 7%.<\/p>\n\n

C\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00f3i chung kh\u00f4ng th\u00edch r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u1eadm ch\u1ea1p. H\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u0103ng cao m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3 t\u1ea1o l\u00e2u h\u01a1n, khi\u1ebfn chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng b\u1ecb t\u1eafc ngh\u1ebdn v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 t\u0103ng cao. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3t n\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0m t\u0103ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng duy tr\u00ec k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n

C\u0169ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t c\u1ea3m gi\u00e1c ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng l\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y tho\u1ea3i m\u00e1i v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao h\u01a1n. N\u1ee3 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t m\u1ecdi th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea1i v\u1edbi h\u01a1n 250% GDP, khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n v\u00e0 h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

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L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao h\u01a1n th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra nhi\u1ec1u t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t: s\u1ee9c mua th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n, ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 v\u1ed1n sai l\u1ea7m, m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c \u00e2m c\u0169ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0m x\u00f3i m\u00f2n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3.<\/p>\n\n

Trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 chi\u1ebfn tranh, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u1ef1ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao h\u01a1n trong m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u1ee3p l\u00fd nh\u01b0 b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y trong bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y v\u1ec1 Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn I, Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn II v\u00e0 Chi\u1ebfn tranh Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n

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M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang \u1edf giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c Ukraine c\u1ee7a Nga, nh\u01b0ng v\u0169ng l\u1ea7y hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i m\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Nga \u0111ang g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t \u0111\u00e1m m\u00e2y b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e2m l\u00fd.<\/p>\n\n

Th\u1eadt d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7 di\u1ec5n ra nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o. L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gia t\u0103ng. C\u00e1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gia v\u00e0 Fed ch\u1ecdn c\u00e1ch ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t tr\u00ean. Khi k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf th\u1ea5p. V\u1ec1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u tr\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 Latinh \u0111\u00e3 nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7. Thay v\u00ec theo d\u00f5i m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng danh ngh\u0129a v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb, ch\u00fang ta n\u00ean theo d\u00f5i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ef1c. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t danh ngh\u0129a nh\u01b0ng r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ef1c s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m theo th\u1eddi gian.<\/p>\n\n

K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n

C. Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p bi quan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

C\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a x\u1ea3y ra, v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng. Trong khi c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra, Fed v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u1eabn \u0111ang th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 l\u1ecfng l\u1ebbo theo ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng 1,5% c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. N\u0103m 1981, Volcker \u0111\u01b0a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u1edf M\u1ef9 l\u00ean h\u01a1n 20%.<\/p>\n

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